Friday, November 26, 2021

CRE Investment Volume Is Rising At Strong Pace

Deal volume for US commercial real estate assets rose 74% year-over-year in July and remained well above the average pace set across each July since 2005, according to a new analysis from Real Capital Analytics.

The apartment sector accounted for 35% of CRE investment last month, while office began to make up some ground loss during the pandemic with 26% of sales volume. That increase was mostly comprised of suburban office deal activity, as investment in urban cores and CBDs remain tepid. The suburban price index went up 11.7% last month, while the CBD office index fell 4.6%, RCA analysts say.

Multifamily also led price gains, according to RCA’s CPPI US report released this week. Apartment asset pricing rose 13.5% year-over-year, an increase that’s on track with levels posted during the housing boom prior to the Great Financial Crisis. Also in July, the US National All-Property Index increased 11.8% year-over-year.

Multifamily investment volume increased by 34% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 to hit $52.7 billion, according to CBRE research released earlier this summer. That demand has driven cap rates lower, particularly in cities like Dallas-Fort Worth and Phoenix.  And John Chang, senior vice president and director of research services at Marcus & Millichap, also recently said that bidders, fueled by fears of a continued rise in inflation, were aggressively pushing up apartment pricing.


Source: CRE Investment Volume Is Rising At Strong Pace
https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/cre-investment-volume-is-rising-at-strong-pace/

Thursday, November 25, 2021

Chicago property owners are fighting Cook County Assessor ahead of reassessments

Cook County assessor Fritz Kaegi (Kaegi, Chicago)

Fritz Kaegi knew he was walking into the line of fire when he set out three years ago to revamp Cook County’s property tax assessments. Still, he says, he is pushing to reform the system, which he described as flawed, unfair, and in some cases corrupt for many generations.

He’s already made sweeping changes that have agitated commercial property owners in two of the county’s three triads. Now he’s facing his biggest challenge yet, with downtown Chicago landlords who question his motives and his methods as he shifts more of the tax burden to commercial property owners.

“When you go into a job like this and try fixing a system so broken and so notorious for clout and stuff behind the scenes, conflict is baked in the cake,” he told The Real Deal in an interview.

His efforts to rebalance a system he says has been abused are complicated by the pandemic, which property owners argue should result in their assessments being reduced rather than increased or left the same.

“If it’s a bad year but people are still buying at 50 percent to 60 percent occupancy, that’s a signal the market is looking at something else,” Kaegi said. “We want to have several data points to use.”

Commercial property owners have been critical of the changes to assessments and of Kaegi himself.

Kaegi “is continuing to put his thumb on the scale and assessing offices, retail stores, and hotels – the type that are bearing the brunt of the pandemic’s economic impacts — as being worth almost twice as much as they were before the pandemic,” said Farzin Parang, executive director of the Building Owners and Managers Association of Chicago.

Kaegi’s predecessor Joseph Berrios is under investigation by a federal grand jury probing property value estimations his office made on a number of central business districts and high-end neighborhoods. Included is a Gold Coast mansion Gov. J.B. Pritzker owned that he said was “uninhabitable” after he had all the toilets removed. That resulted in a $331,000 tax break for the billionaire. Pritzker has said, “all the rules were followed.”

Berrios already has paid $100,000 in ethics fines tied to accepting campaign contributions that exceeded limits from lawyers who worked on appeals cases with his office. The amount was only 60 percent of the original $168,000 fine from the Board of Ethics after a settlement.

Now, even as office and retail vacancies are at record levels, commercial properties owners are worried assessments — and their tax bills — will soar as properties whose rates were lowballed under Berrios adjust to market values, even with pandemic concessions factored in. Only apartment building occupancy and rent levels have bounced back after a short-lived exodus during last year’s lockdowns.

“Assessments are out of date and there are huge inequities,” Kaegi said. “I don’t know the alternative that is being proposed instead of market value.” He added he would be “very wary of putting a political filter on” based on some group’s recommendation. “That always comes at the expense of another.” Under Berrios, metrics used to value properties were out of whack on some parcels without explanation and they stayed that way while other like properties escalated in value. Property values on 9,000 Chicago sites, for example, didn’t budge after the financial crisis in 2009 to 2015, through three Berrios reassessments, according to a year-long Chicago Tribune/ProPublica study released in late 2017.

When 2018 reassessment notices on Chicago properties went out before Kaegi was sworn in, many of them saw little to no changes in market value, according to the assessor’s office. A 2020 study by the International Association of Assessing Officers found estimated market values of the city’s commercial properties, on average, equaled only 52 percent of their sales value.

“Study after study has shown they were way off the market values then,” Kaegi said of Berrios’ models. “We need to take favoritism out of the valuation process. We were off track and we’re getting it back to where it should have been all along.”

Some of Kaegi’s critics at the BOMA and the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce worry that huge jumps in property taxes will deter growth and investment in a city that is struggling to recover from the pandemic. Some also accuse Kaegi of tilting the tax burden toward businesses and away from individuals — voters — as mainly a tactic to win reelection.

“It should not come as a surprise to you that the biggest ones that were most under-assessed might try to argue that,” he said. “I don’t think they even accept the idea that assessment should be based on market value, a basic underpinning of the law.”

It’s too soon to say if property values will be doubled though it’s likely a few might.

Higher assessments don’t always lead to higher tax bills, but in this case, some of the largest office and apartment landlords will see tax bill hikes in double digits. Already, some property owners know what to expect, thanks to an early analysis by Cook County Treasurer Maria Papas.

Some of these are very high-profile skyscrapers owned by powerful companies. Blackstone Group’s Willis Tower, Sterling Bay’s Prudential Plaza, 601W Companies’ Aon Center, and Vornado Realty Trust’s Merchandise Mart will pay close to 11 percent more in property taxes, according to Pappas’ office.

“It’s not about burden-shifting, it’s about clarifying where the market is at,” Kaegi said. “Our property tax system is going to be fair when we’re using market values. If not, businesses are poorly served and then it becomes a big game of clout.”


https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/chicago-property-owners-are-fighting-cook-county-assessor-ahead-of-reassessments/

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Chicago Apartment Rents Rise to Seven-Month High

(Getty)

Renters looking for apartments in major cities need to bring more to the table, and Chicago is no exception.

Median rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Chicago jumped 1.2 percent to $1,423 in August from July and is up 4.4 percent from a year ago, according to a report by Apartment List. It has now risen for seven consecutive months.

“Vacancy rates are at an all-time low. [There is] really high occupancy in the rental market,” said Rob Warnock, senior research associate at Apartment List, a rental listing site. “Landlords have the opportunity for the first time in about a year and a half to raise prices and recoup some of the lost revenue from last year.”

With housing supply getting scarcer in Chicago and the rest of the country, prices are going to go up, Warnock said. The median price in Chicago in July came up to its level from March 2020, which Apartment List considers the last pre-pandemic month, he said. The site publishes monthly rent reports for more than 30 U.S. cities using its own listings as well as census data. The new report shows Chicago’s median two-bedroom rent is 14 percent higher than the national average of $1,246 but is affordable compared to prices in other major cities. San Francisco topped the list with an of $2,780 median asking rent for a two-bedroom, followed by New York ($2,070), Washington ($1,800), and Denver ($1,780).

Asking rents for single-family homes in the U.S. jumped nearly 13 percent year-to-date through the end of July. Downtown Class A apartments in Chicago had an 8.6 percent vacancy rate in the first quarter, higher than a year ago.


https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/chicago-apartment-rents-rise-to-seven-month-high/

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

More Tenants Plan To Increase Space Next Year Than Shrink It

 

Also, close to two out of five tenants said they will be preferring longer occupancy terms to get ahead of possible rent increases.

More than double the share of commercial real estate tenants are planning to increase rather than decrease their space next year, according to a survey by the Visual Lease Data Institute, a lease optimization software provider.

Seven out of 10 tenants predict they will be looking for more space while three out of 10 are preparing to downsize.

Close to half of the tenants (48 percent) said at least some of the expansion will come in existing spaces, higher than the 41 percent landlords are anticipating.

Sixty-one percent of tenants are forecasting 2022 commercial rents to be about the same or higher than rent prices were prior to the pandemic, an expectation held by 75 percent of landlords.

In signing new leases during the coming year, close to two out of five tenants said they will be preferring longer occupancy terms to get ahead of possible rent increases and save a significant amount of money.

Fifty-eight percent of tenants are prioritizing leases of at least five years in length, with nearly 20 percent interested in 10 or more years of occupancy.

All that said, a large number of tenants are still suffering financial fallout from the pandemic. More than a third said they are still behind in their rent after 61 percent said they lapsed during the worst of the crisis.

Post-pandemic, landlords are predicting a revival for major metropolitan areas like New York and Los Angeles in a general resurgence for cities.

“Increased interest in urban areas suggests many companies are considering how they will set up physical office spaces amid hybrid working conditions and whether they will be available to employees full-time or part-time,” said the report.

Visual Lease found the majority of landlords expect retail space, multi-tenant offices, single-tenant offices and industrial space to garner the most interest from tenants.

“While no universal blueprint for a return to the workplace exists, many companies that had a remote work option during the height of the pandemic continue to offer hybrid workplaces and still plan for some form of real estate presence,” the company concluded.

The findings were based on a survey of 400 senior accounting and finance professionals and commercial real estate executives, 200 of whom representing the perspective of tenants, and 200 of whom representing the perspective of landlords.

The findings dovetail with other reports of growing confidence in the resiliency of commercial real estate going forward. For instance, ULI is predicting the real estate market will return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023.

“The US economy remains relatively attractive for real estate, especially in contrast with the period immediately following the global economic downturn in 2008/9,” said Ed Walter, ULI’s Global CEO. “While prolonged high inflation could damage the viability of pipeline projects, the short-term spike predicted should have less impact. This is why we see transaction volumes recovering so quickly and investment returns for core property types looking so healthy. The real estate sector is in a strong position to build its way out of the pandemic and take the economy with it.”

ULI predicts GDP growth for 2021 will hit 5.7 percent, a decline from spring 2021 numbers but “still more than double the bounce back seen in 2010,” ULI analysts say. Longer-term forecasts are more stable and remain above the 20-year average of 2.5 percent.


Source: More Tenants Plan To Increase Space Next Year Than Shrink It
https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/more-tenants-plan-to-increase-space-next-year-than-shrink-it/

Monday, November 22, 2021

How Millennials Are Reshaping the SFR Market

 

“They desire more space for raising a family in a room for a home office, and they want better access to good schools, jobs, and amenities.”

The population surge of millennials, coupled with the housing supply shortage endemic across the US, will drive demand for single-family rentals in infill neighborhoods in high-growth markets, a SFR exec told investors recently.

“We believe that the operating fundamentals for our business remain fantastic and that the environment for growth remains favorable with our opportunities to creatively deploy new capital among the best we’ve seen in recent years,” Dallas Tanner, president and CEO of Invitation Homes, said on a recent earnings call.

Tanner said Invitation’s average occupancy is at “historically high levels,” with turnover trending lower and rental rate growth surging well past the traditional summer leasing window. One reason? Demographics.

“I’ve spoken previously about the population surge of millennials and how we expect many within this cohort to transition into single family homes over time. They desire more space for raising a family in a room for a home office, and they want better access to good schools, jobs, and amenities,” he said. “They also value the convenience of a worry-free subscription-based lifestyle.”

Chief Operating Officer Charles Young described Invitation’s resident base as “strong and stable,” noting that the company’s average new resident today is a family with at least one child and pet. The adults are 39 years old on average, both work and together earn more than $120,000 per year, equaling an income to rent ratio of more than five times.

That’s particularly true in the Sunbelt and across the West, where Invitation is deploying the bulk of its capital.

“In specific markets like Las Vegas and Phoenix, the Southwest Sunbelt type markets have seen an outperformance over really the last eight to 10 years, in terms of what we’re seeing with net migration, household formation,” Tanner said. “And ultimately, that’s showing itself in home price appreciation and the rate growth that we’re seeing with the corresponding growth in the home pricing. We will continue to invest capital in the parts of the country, where we believe we’re going to continue to see that outperformance.”

Institutional investors have allocated more than $10 billion to the SFR sector over the last few years. And according to a midsummer report from YardiMatrix, the Southwest (4,896) and Southeast (3,978) have the most SFR units under construction. They are followed by the Midwest (1,716) and West (1,522). Only 134 units are being built in the Northeast. Phoenix leads the way with 6,000 existing SFR communities and more than 2,500 under construction. Jacksonville (766), Charlotte (719), Houston (644) and Atlanta (544) have the most SFR communities under construction.

In July, Invitation Homes and PulteGroup announced they had formed a partnership in which PulteGroup will supply the REIT with new houses.  At the time, Invitation Homes said it expected to purchase approximately 7,500 new homes over the next five years from PulteGroup, the nation’s third-largest homebuilder.


Source: How Millennials Are Reshaping the SFR Market
https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/how-millennials-are-reshaping-the-sfr-market/

Sunday, November 21, 2021

Multifamily Giants Outperforming 2021 Expectations Sitting Pretty Heading Into 2022

 

THIS YEAR HAS GONE BETTER FOR MULTIFAMILY REAL ESTATE THAN VIRTUALLY ANYONE PREDICTED WHEN THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC BEGAN, INCLUDING THE HEADS OF THE SECTOR’S BIGGEST COMPANIES.

Six of the largest multifamily REITs to have released their earnings reports for the third quarter all reported outperforming their year-to-date performance guidance, including Mid-America Apartment Communities, AvalonBay Communities, Equity Residential, Essex Property Trust, UDR and Camden Property Trust. With rents increasing at a dramatic pace and capital availability at historic levels, the biggest landlords in the country are riding high.

Across all of the earnings reports and the calls between the companies’ executives and financial analysts accompanying the reports, common themes emerged within the overall sunny outlook: average occupancy over 96%, cap rates below 4% and an impetus to build new apartment buildings at a greater rate than was expected at the start of the year.

“We continue to aggressively sell our older and less desirable properties at these low cap rates and at prices that exceed our pre-pandemic value estimates, [as well as] acquiring much newer assets in our expansion markets,” Equity Residential President and CEO Mark Parrell said on his company’s earnings call. “We have funded these buys with an approximately equal amount of dispositions of older and less desirable assets.”

The resounding success of the largest landlords stands in stark contrast to the ongoing troubles owners of small numbers of rental units are facing, including being saddled with a disproportionate number of tenants who owe back rent.

The major players still have considerable numbers of tenants who had struggled with rent payments through the pandemic, but they have used their resources to either apply for the federal government’s Emergency Rental Assistance program on their behalf or helped them to apply directly. AvalonBay, Camden, Essex, Equity Residential and UDR all reported receiving more than $10M in ERA payments for their tenants so far this year and all expect to receive further payments before the year is out.

In a similar vein, the widening gap between the demand for single-family homes and the pipeline of new construction counts as good news for the multifamily industry as cost increases and delays in construction serve to drive the price of housing up.

“Price appreciation in the for-sale single-family market and relatively stable multifamily supply both support a healthy near-term outlook for rental rate growth,” AvalonBay Chief Operating Officer Sean Breslin said on his company’s call.

As the lion’s share of units owned by major multifamily REITs are Class-A, executives reported their tenant base as emerging from the pandemic in strong financial positions and with historically high levels of savings, encouraging landlords they can absorb steep rent increases. Loss to lease, the difference between rents paid by in-place tenants and tenants signing new leases today, averaged more than 13% between the largest REITs to have released earnings reports for the third quarter.

Clockwise from top left: Walker & Dunlop CEO Willy Walker, Equity Residential CEO Mark Parrell and Boston Properties CEO Owen Thomas on the Walker Webcast.

“This is definitely the highest loss to lease we have ever seen, with such a large majority of leases below market,” Equity Residential Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Michael Manelis said on his company’s earnings call. “And [our] teams are hyperfocused to recapture as much of the loss to lease as possible.”

Camden Property Trust reported its loss to lease as high as 16% in the third quarter, but Executive Vice Chair Keith Oden told analysts that his company will focus on maximizing retention by avoiding raising rents all the way to market rates for renewing tenants. Even without such consideration, all of the six multifamily REITs mentioned reported higher renewal rates this year, with the relative lack of turnover giving landlords more pricing power.

Pricing power is an incredible tool for landlords with enough scale, as MAA, the largest landlord in the country by unit count, is demonstrating. Despite the supply chain and labor market causing shortages and delays across commercial real estate, MAA’s pipeline of developments under construction is currently on time and on budget, CEO Eric Bolton said to analysts.

Even with the various tailwinds the multifamily market is currently enjoying, with values and deal volume hitting record highs, at least some major landlords have used innovations born out of pandemic necessity to cut costs permanently. Executives from Equity Residential and UDR told analysts prospective tenants seem to prefer self-guided tours and digital platforms for services when possible, boasting higher customer satisfaction numbers even as they have cut staff at their properties.

“Since the second quarter of 2018, we have permanently reduced headcount at our communities by 40% on average, thereby providing a strong hedge against elevated inflationary pressures,” UDR Senior Vice President of Property Operations Michael Lacy said. “[We] delivered products and services in the formats our residents prefer, as exhibited by a 24% increase in our resident satisfaction score and an overall 97% usage rate for self-guided prospective resident tours.”

Though thinner on-site teams may be a permanent consequence of the pandemic, major investors are well aware the current environment for raising capital is not likely to remain this friendly for long thanks to continued inflation and predicted changes to monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

MAA issued $600M in public bonds in Q3, extended the average maturity on its debt to nine years away and raised $210M of forward equity capital, which MAA Chief Financial Officer Albert Campbell told analysts would cover the company’s equity requirements for the next couple of years. UDR agreed to $350M worth of forward agreements for stock purchases in the quarter, added $200M each to its credit facility and commercial paper capacities and extended maturity dates on other loans.

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/multifamily-giants-outperforming-2021-expectations-sitting-pretty-heading-into-2022/

Saturday, November 20, 2021

ULI Says US CRE Should Return To Pre-COVID Levels by 2023

 

“The real estate sector is in a strong position to build its way out of the pandemic and take the economy with it.”

The US real estate market is predicted to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023, with equity REIT investors poised to win big.

Total annual returns for equity REITs are predicted to reach 27.8% in 2021, according to ULI, topping 2019’s previous high of 26%.

“The forecast comes close to the 2014 peak of 30.1% and almost doubles the spring 2021 forecast of 15.0%. At 10% annually, the forecasts for 2022 and 2023 fall back to closer to the 20-year average of 11.3%,” ULI economists note in a recent release outlining their economic predictions for the next few years.

Meanwhile, the Fall 2021 ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast for 2021 to 2023 says the hotel sector will face ‘significant disappointments.’ RevPAR fell 47.4% in 2020 and should peak at 12.2% in 2022. The forecast for 2021 has ‘collapsed’ from 29.6% made in the Spring to 5% now.

“The US economy remains relatively attractive for real estate, especially in contrast with the period immediately following the global economic downturn in 2008/9,” said Ed Walter, ULI’s Global CEO. “While prolonged high inflation could damage the viability of pipeline projects, the short-term spike predicted should have less impact. This is why we see transaction volumes recovering so quickly and investment returns for core property types looking so healthy. The real estate sector is in a strong position to build its way out of the pandemic and take the economy with it.”

ULI predicts GDP growth for 2021 will hit 5.7%, a decline from spring 2021 numbers but “still more than double the bounce back seen in 2010,” ULI analysts say. Longer-term forecasts are more stable and remain above the 20-year average of 2.5%.

Inflation may hit 4.3% in the fall but ULI says its analysts are “optimistic about this spike receding rapidly to near 2019 levels in 2023.” Interest rates are expected to rise gradually to 1.6% in 2021 and 2.25% in 2023, lower than the 20-year average of 3.07%.

Cap rates are expected to fall to 4.3% for 2021 and 2022 before moving upward again in 2023. And “for capital markets, the forecast shows growing optimism about commercial real estate transaction volumes in the next three years with forecasts falling just short of 2019’s peak of $617 billion,” ULI notes, adding that issuance of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) is expected to rise to approach the 2019 peak of $98 billion.

Vacancy is expected to remain high in 2021 rising 200 basis points with only minimal improvement in 2023. Office vacancy rates are expected to reach a ten-year high of 16.9% annually in 2021 and 2022.


Source: ULI Says US CRE Should Return To Pre-COVID Levels by 2023
https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/uli-says-us-cre-should-return-to-pre-covid-levels-by-2023/

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