Deconstruct Looks at CRE Investment Forecast for 2023

It’s the end of the year as we know it, and investors feel uncertain.

Rate hikes have slowed deals in the second half of 2022, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said there’s more pain to come.

But how long can investors’ ample dry powder sit on the sidelines?

The deal dam may break halfway through 2023, Moody’s senior economist Thomas LaSalvia said on the latest episode of TRD’s podcast “Deconstruct.”

“The market is going to have to adjust starting in the middle of next year,” LaSalvia said. “I have a feeling that we will start to see deal volume pick up a little bit more as prices maybe adjust a little bit and also as investors find creative ways to get deals done.”

But each sector holds its own nuance as rates keep rising, inflation remains high and recession looms. Multifamily’s record-breaking rent growth is likely to lose steam. Retail sales may finally feel the impact of heightened prices, and the fate of office could finally come into focus.

Tune into the full episode for a sector-by-sector breakdown of what research firms expect for 2023. The podcast will be back after a holiday break on January 9 with a new episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Audible or wherever you get your podcasts.

 

Source: Deconstruct Looks at CRE Investment Forecast for 2023

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/deconstruct-looks-at-cre-investment-forecast-for-2023/

Chicago Becomes the Hottest Rental Market Amid a Nationwide Cooldown

While the autumn months brought a cooldown in rental prices across the U.S., some metro areas, such as Chicago, Boston, and New York, are bucking the trend with double-digit growth, according to a report out Tuesday.

In November, the median asking rent across the 50 largest metros tracked by Realtor.com increased 3.4% yearly to $1,712. According to the report, the annual growth rate was the slowest in 19 months.

“Many Americans’ budgets are being pulled in multiple directions as the holidays approach, bringing a more typical seasonal cooldown to the rental market that we hadn’t seen in the last few years,” Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, said in a statement.

In the Sun Belt, where both sales and rental markets experienced a pandemic boom, rental prices saw the most significant cooldown. The median asking rent in Riverside, California, fell 5.5% in November to $2,071 per month. In Las Vegas, the monthly rent dropped 4.9% to a median $1,481, according to the report.

In major economic hubs such as Chicago, Boston, and New York, where there are more employment opportunities and higher concentrations of college students, monthly rents climbed by double digits compared to a year ago. Chicago experienced the largest annual growth, with the median rent increasing 20.8% to $1,949 monthly.

Boston’s median rent rose 11.8% year over year in November to $2,865 per month, surpassing New York’s monthly rent of $2,727, which was 9.4% higher than the same period last year, according to the report.

Also, the rental market is expected to remain competitive in 2023 as still-high inflation, and interest rates will deter potential buyers from purchasing homes.

“Despite this recent relief, renters will continue to be challenged by affordability in 2023, with rents forecasted to hit record highs,” Ms. Hale said.

 

 

 

Source: Chicago Becomes the Hottest Rental Market Amid a Nationwide Cooldown

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/chicago-becomes-the-hottest-rental-market-amid-a-nationwide-cooldown/

What’s the Outlook for Affordable Multi-Family Housing in 2023?

During the past two years, prices for single-family homes rose at record-breaking rates, forcing many first-time buyers to postpone their plans and continue to rent.

In addition, demand for affordable multi-family housing increased as more Generation Z renters (age 18 to 23) left their family homes for apartments.

This is good news for investors searching for affordablemulti-family housing for sale, as their cash flow will increase with the passive income generated by tenants’ rent.

However, renters and investors are still coping with the effects of runaway inflation, living and renting in an increasingly expensive world. In addition, Fannie Mae is predicting aslowdown in multi-family construction. How will this affect next year’s multi-housing outlook?

The Federal Reserve’s Plans for 2023 Interest Rates

It’s impossible to predict an accurate outlook for multi-family housing and renters without reviewing the predictions issued by the Federal Reserve, or “the Fed” as it’s commonly known.

One of the Fed’s primary responsibilities is tomonitor the nation’s financial systemsand to support a healthy economy.

This responsibility has been evident from 2020 to the current date.

• During 2020, the Fed Reserve responded to fears of a lasting recession by reducing the federal funds rate to around 0.25%.
• Fast-forward to late 2021, the national economy was hit with runaway inflation.
• The Fed responded with four interest rate hikes during 2022 that increased the federal funds rate from 3.75% to 4.00%.

The Fed hopes to discourage consumers and businesses from buying with credit by creating more expensive credit. This helps “cool” the economy and put the brakes on inflation.

This strategy has been described as "bad-tasting, but effective" economic medicine.

How lousy will rates taste next year?

Rate Predictions for 2023

During 2023, the taste of Federal rate hikes probably won’t improve. According to the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, rates are expected to continue rising from 4.5% to 4.75%.

The question for investors financing their purchases of multi-family properties is:How many will postpone their investments in 2023?

It’s possible that, even when paying more for commercial property financing, investors who don’t postpone their expansion into multi-family property sales may still profit. This is because rental rates and demand for additional units continue to grow.

How Rising Rates May Affect Multi-Family Investors

While most developers dislike postponing a new project, higher rates create expensive credit. Some analysts predict that some 2023 apartment builds will be delayed, but not all.

For example, a developer’s financial backers may opt to raise the rental rates of a completed building, as this will help cover the additional cost of credit used to buy construction materials.

This may translate into higher rent rates for newly-built multi-family real estate.

This is only half the picture. It’s not realistic to consider how rising interest rates will affect investors without considering the effect on their tenants.

Will Renters’ Preferences Change?

It’s well worth it for investors to research potential renters in their preferred area.

• In some cities, more renters are opting for roommates.  Developers may want to add more two- and three-bedroom units to new projects.
• Not all renters plan to share, especially those who work remotely. They’re often willing to pay more for one-bedroom and studio apartments.

One example: When an NYC developer announced plans for a multi-family building composed entirely of 302 sq. ft. studio apartments,60,000 potential renters appliedfor one of the 55 units before they were completed.

Here are details of new affordable multi-family housing projects planned for construction during 2023.

Multi-Family Projects Expected for 2023

As the number of renters continues to grow, so does the demand for rental units.

During 2022, multi-family construction skyrocketed, hitting an all-time high of 841,000 units under construction. In addition, building permits rose 25.5% year-over-year.

With more would-be homeowners priced out of the market and younger workers leaving the family home, some industry analysts have identified a logjam of renters.

Rates that sidelined would-be homebuyers are also affecting developers. Some have already decided to postpone construction starts. This is evidenced by the number of multifamily units officially authorized by city officials but have not yet started.

Industry experts fear that this trend will only become worse in 2023. Will the number of renters in 2023 cause the predicted logjam? Will rents rise, and by how much? Apartment managers have their data.

Tenancy and Rent Rates: Data and Predictions

According to theresearch team at Apartment List, the national rental price index fell by 0.7% during October 2022. This isn’t a surprise, as fall and winter are slow rental months.

However, rent prices continued to pull ahead of pre-pandemic numbers. As of November 2022, rents for the year have increased by around 5.8% annually.

Researchers also found that the vacancy index grew to 5.5%.

If you’re wondering why vacancies increased, this is due to a slower rate of what’s referred to as“household formation.” More nervous, young, would-be renters prefer to stay at the family home or with roommates.

That said, today’s vacancy index remains below the pre-pandemic norm. This translates into a year of opportunities for careful investors.

One Thing's for Sure: Additional Housing Is Needed

While industry analysts don’t all agree about the current outlook for multi-family housing, the need for additional units during 2023 and beyond has been identified.

Unit shortages in many areas are due to increased mortgage costs, more first-time homebuyers being priced out of the market, and inflation.

Rising interest rates may result in some, but not all, new multi-family builds being postponed.

As with any investment plan, start with research of today’s markets and the assistance of a broker if you’re starting.

 

Source: What’s the Outlook for Affordable Multi-Family Housing in 2023?

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/whats-the-outlook-for-affordable-multi-family-housing-in-2023/

Should I Sell or Should I Hold? When is the best time for asset repositioning?

When it comes to selling their investment properties, clients typically ask me,’ Why should I sell?’ Great question. Why should you sell? The obvious answer is that you purchased the investment property as an investment, and it may not be doing as well as other investment opportunities, and after a while, you don’t realize the appreciation and thus maximization of profit from the property until you sell and acquire another investment property. So the question is really, ‘When should I sell? Clients really lose the perspective of the driving reason why they invested in an investment property in the first place. An investment property is just that; an investment. Treated as such, every investment must have a horizon and an exit strategy. If a property was purchased as an investment, then it makes full sense to profit as much as possible from the investment.

The real estate market, like any other market, will go through peaks and valleys. Trying to predict the exact moment of peak or the exact moment the market reaches the bottom is practically impossible. The real estate cycle has four phases; recovery, expansion, hyper supply, and recession. The complete real estate market cycle seems to have an average duration of about 18 years as there is good historical data to support that. So, where are we in that cycle now? How much more upside will we see before we reach the peak? The question really is, ‘What is your appetite for risk?’

Below is a chart of the real estate cycles dating back from the 1800s. The last real estate market crash started at 2006. We are almost 16 years into that cycle. Interest rates are still at all-time lows. Money is cheap, and the threat of inflation is very high. How long can government print money without paying the price down the road? How much road do we have left?

So when is a good time to exit an investment property? As with everything else, real estate is cyclical. Those of us that have been around for some time have witnessed several cycles in the real estate market. Since it is practically impossible to predict the peak of cycles, what strategy should you then use to maximize your investments? Keeping it simple, when evaluating if you should consider selling an investment property, it doesn’t really matter what the current real estate market is like. If you are looking to replace the investment property with another investment property, the ultimate decision to sell should also be based upon if you can increase your returns with the new replacement property, not what state the current market is in now.

There are a number of factors that can impact real estate prices; availability, investment potential, and interest rates, to name a few. Interest rates impact the price and demand of real estate—lower rates bring in more buyers due to the lower cost of money but also expand the demand for real estate, which can then drive up prices. As interests rate starts to inch up, the cost of money increases, and thus the appetite for real estate investments declines.

However, there are many ways that one can still protect their investments. 1031 Exchanges give investors a vehicle to reposition assets and mitigate risk. There are certain asset classes that inherently hold less risk and still perform as an investment vehicle. The questions really come down to; ‘How long do I hold on during this cycle? Do I have the time horizon to outlast another cycle? Is it time to reposition and take advantage of 1031?

As part of the team for our client’s investments, we specialize in building solutions around our client’s needs. We analyze the requirements, crunch the data, and present assets entirely based on their circumstances and the goals they are trying to achieve with their investment.

Have you thought of selling your property and would like to know what it’s worth? Request a valuation for your property below:

Request Valuation

 

Source: Should I Sell or Should I Hold? When is the best time for asset repositioning?

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/should-i-sell-or-should-i-hold-when-is-the-best-time-for-asset-repositioning/

How to Get the Most Profit When Selling Your Investment Property

All too often I receive inquiries from a potential seller that wants to “get the highest price” for their property, but does not want to list it, or market the property. This seems counter intuitive, especially to the basic law of economics… supply and demand. Although there is not much an average seller can do to affect the supply line, they can create demand by using a good agent.

We’ve seen this over and over the last few years in this current “sellers” market. Almost to the point where we now receive as many calls from investors saying they only want to look at “off market” deals, believing they’ll get a better price without other competing investors. So, is the answer that simple? If seller wants the highest price, do they just need to make sure the property is seen by as many possible interested investors?

Not exactly, to ensure the greatest exposure for the property, and therefore the best likelihood for the highest price, a seller should make sure the agent they use to represent them does ALL of the following, not just market to their own buyers. After all, even if that agent has a buyer it doesn’t mean that the agent’s particular buyer will pay the highest price. A good agent will create a marketing plan to provide maximum exposure for the property. This plan should include:

1) Placing it in Multiple Listing Services

2) Contacting every owner of similar properties within the surrounding few blocks to see if other landlords are interested in acquiring additional investments in the area.

3) Sending out email flyers to their buyers’ lists, local brokers, and property owners.

4) Making direct contact with every client that has purchased an investment property within the last two years.

5) Making direct contact with every broker that has represented a buyer that purchased an investment property in the last two years.

This may sound like a lot of work , but a good agent will go above and beyond.

Please do realize though that no experienced real estate agent is going to do any of the above if they are not insured a representation commission. So to ensure maximum exposure, and thus maximum returns, make sure you draft up and enter into a fair listing agreement that details out what the agent will do for you, and what type of compensation they can expect from a sale

 

Source: How to Get the Most Profit When Selling Your Investment Property

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/how-to-get-the-most-profit-when-selling-your-investment-property/

9 Mistakes Property Managers Make with Utility Management

Utilities are one of the biggest expenses for apartment communities. And with inflation pushing the price of utilities to record-highs, it’s even more important that you’re keeping these expenses to a minimum.

Luckily, the right utility management strategies will not only help you keep costs down, but present an opportunity to bring in added revenue. Before that can happen, you need to assess every aspect of your utility program. Because most companies usually have a few areas that need improvement. Here are the most common mistakes that result in apartment operators spending more than they should on utilities.

#1 Including utilities in the price of rent

The worst mistake you can make with utilities is including them in the price of rent. That’s because you aren’t recouping money to match your actual expenses. Plus, residents don’t receive any kind of utility bill, which does not give them any motivation to conserve.

Another problem with including utilities in the rent is that it’s difficult to raise rent and remain competitive with other apartment communities. With rents rising so steeply over the past year, apartment residents are more sensitive than ever to rent prices. A “utilities-included” model can scare away some prospective renters if other communities in the area charge for utilities and have lower rent.

#2 Charging a flat fee for utilities

Charging a flat fee is also a risky move since utility costs fluctuate. And lately, they only seem to be going up. Your fee has to be high enough that you aren’t losing money, but you also can’t overcharge either. In some states, overcharging for utilities is illegal.

#3 Neglecting inefficient features that waste energy and impact NOI

When your buildings are not energy efficient, it hurts your business in two ways. One is that you use more energy which ultimately means higher expenses (and lower NOI).

The other way is that it could detract renters. An ACEEE study found that not only were renters more likely to visit communities that advertised energy efficiency, they were also willing to spend a little more on rent. On average, renters would increase their budget by 1.8% for a one-unit increase in energy score (on a scale from 1 to 10). That generates $400 per unit in additional annual revenue for an average-priced rental unit.

#4 Overlooking important utility metrics

Monitoring data associated with utilities is one of the most effective ways to improve your overall utility program. But many multifamily companies don’t do this at all or to its fullest potential.

However, by not actively monitoring utility data, you are missing opportunities to reduce your expenses and improve revenue. Plus, many cities and states are enacting laws requiring multifamily buildings to annually assess and report their energy performance. Like it or not, reviewing utility data is more important than ever.

#5 Paying utility bills without auditing them

Many companies simply check the balance due amount before issuing a payment. That strategy can result in a mountain of unnecessary charges. According to studies done by Engie, one of the nation’s largest utility billing auditors, at least 17% of utility invoices contain an error. With all the invoices your firm receives, it’s likely many have errors that go unnoticed.

This is why utility billing audits are so important. With the help of utility expense management companies all of your utility bills are audited for errors and savings opportunities. When errors are spotted, the provider disputes the charges on your behalf until a resolution is achieved.

#6 Accumulating and paying late fees every month

Most utility invoices have a fairly short payment window. To further complicate things,  sometimes your utility invoices don’t arrive at all, forcing your associates to track down what’s missing.

Because of these two scenarios, it’s easy to get dinged with late fees. That’s unfortunate, because they can really add up. Many utility companies assess fees that are equal to a 12-, 18-, 24-, or 36-percent annual interest rate. In other words, utility late fees are steep. And they add up in a major way. It’s vital to your NOI that utility invoices are always paid on time.

#7 Paying for renters’ utilities after they move in

Utility theft can cost property management companies thousands of dollars per year. Most of the time, this happens simply because renters forget to transfer utilities into their name. Whatever the reason, this miss can lead your company to pay thousands of dollars per year in charges that aren’t yours.

#8 Failing to monitor utility regulations for your states

Each state and municipality has different rules around handling utilities. So if you operate in different regions, it’s necessary to see what rules apply to each and every community in your portfolio.

The consequences for violating utility regulations can be costly. Most states levy fines on a per instance basis. So let’s say you’ve made a minor error in billing your entire 300-unit community. That’s 300 fines imposed - not 1!

#9 Overlooking the utility payment experience

How residents receive and pay for their utility charges is often an overlooked component of a utility management strategy. But if you aren’t taking into consideration how the process goes from a resident’s perspective, you could be damaging your bottom line.

In the short term, a poor payment experience can lead to late payments and frustrated residents, particularly if they need more clarity about their charges.

In the long run, a poor utility payment process could impact resident retention. When the payment process is inconvenient, or when residents don’t feel well-informed about what they owe, it impacts satisfaction since the situation is repeated month after month.

How to overcome utility management mistakes

If your company is making any of these mistakes, don’t worry. There are several easy strategies to get you back on track. Your best bet is to consult with a utility management provider that specializes in the multifamily industry. They can advise you on the most effective ways to tighten your expenses.

 

Source: 9 Mistakes Property Managers Make with Utility Management

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/9-mistakes-property-managers-make-with-utility-management/

How Real Estate Can Beat Inflation

How Real Estate Can Beat Inflation

 

Former president Ronald Reagan once remarked, “Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.” While there’s a fair amount of hyperbole in that statement, the comparison of inflation to a robber is an apt one. As a market force, inflation can and will devalue your investments. Fortunately, investors have a powerful tool to restore some balance.

Understanding inflation

What exactly is inflation? The simple definition of inflation is “a general increase in prices and a fall in the purchasing power of money.” The rate of inflation is measured by the Consumer Price Index and reflects the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services. There are three things that lead to inflation:

• A cost push, which is an overall rise in prices
• A demand pull, which is a surge in demand for something
• Printing money, which happens when a government is facing a shortfall

The housing market, like all other economic sectors, is impacted by inflation. If there’s a reduction in the available inventory or an increase in demand, prices will go up, as we’ve seen. The price of a house can rise because the actual structure itself may be worth more due to rising lumber costs, but also because people see value in it as an investment.

How to Outperform Inflation

If you were to take your money and leave it in a savings account, you wouldn’t even get a one percent return. Simultaneously, the rate of inflation between April 2021 and April 2022 was 8.3%. Your money would actually lose its purchasing power by sitting in a savings account.

An excellent way to combat inflation is through real estate investing, especially in the rental property market. Even with high inflation, real estate still appreciated well above the general rate of inflation in the past year. While that year-over-year increase in asking rents and home prices could be an anomaly, the demand for rental housing clearly is not. In a study earlier this year, mortgage-finance company Freddie Mac estimated that the national deficit of single-family homes stood at 3.8 million units at the end of 2020. While that shortfall could eventually be made up for, that’s not likely to happen soon. In the meantime, a lot of would-be homeowners will remain in the rental market.

Even if you were to finance your rental property, you’d still be better off financing a rental property than putting your money into a savings account. It sounds counterintuitive, but your debt would be fixed while the rent you could charge would increase with inflation. With tenants paying off your loan, you’d be able to capture the benefits of inflation, both in the rent you could charge, and when you eventually sell your property.

While we don’t know how long we’ll be facing high inflation, investment properties will hedge against inflation for as long as you own them.

 

Source: How Real Estate Can Beat Inflation

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/how-real-estate-can-beat-inflation/