Rent prices feeling higher than ever? It’s nothing compared to last year

For prospective tenants, rent prices feel higher than ever before. But if you compare the numbers to this time last year? They’re reportedly lower, based on new data from Rentometer.

In fact, based on a recent rent report by Rentometer, Chicago rent prices for all three bedroom counts (one bedroom, two bedroom and three bedroom) have decreased since this period last year.

The average rent in Q1 2023 for a three-bedroom unit was $2,287, compared to $2,252 in Q1 2022 (-2% YOY) while the average rent in Q1 2023 for a two-bedroom unit was $1,849, compared to $1,829 in Q1 2022 (-2% YOY).

And the bedroom count that reflected the most change year over year? One-bedroom. Rentometer reported a -9% decrease, with the average rent for a unit of this type being $1,392 in Q1 2023, compared to $1,528 in Q1 2022.

Source: Rent prices feeling higher than ever? It’s nothing compared to last year

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/rent-prices-feeling-higher-than-ever-its-nothing-compared-to-last-year/

How inflation is measured: 3 examples

1. Housing

Housing is perhaps the most consequential category in the consumer price index, a key inflation barometer.

Housing is the largest expense for an average U.S. household. The "shelter" category — which measures costs for renters and homeowners — therefore accounts for more than a third of the CPI weighting, the most of any category.

"Every single component [of the CPI] has some idiosyncratic measurement issue," Zandi said. "But housing is particularly important. It drives a lot of the inflation train."

Price changes in "shelter" were generally muted before the pandemic, economists said. But Covid-19 warped that dynamic: Housing costs shot up but have slowed and even started to fall in some areas, economists said.

Nationally, Americans saw rents grow by 5% in April from a year earlier, to about $2,018 a month on average nationally, according to Zillow Observed Rent Index data. That's a significant slowdown from 17% growth during the prior year, from April 2021 to April 2022.

Here's the problem: The CPI doesn't capture those price trends in real time.

It operates with a substantial lag, meaning it can take six months to a year for a decline (or increase) in current housing prices to fully feed through to inflation data, economists said.

"It's not necessarily a particularly accurate gauge of what's going on in the housing market right now," said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Here's the reason for the lag: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics collects rent data from sample households every six months. The BLS also divides these sample households into six different subgroups (called "panels") and staggers when it collects data for each. Per the BLS, rents for Panel 1 are collected in January and July; Panel 2, in February and August, and so on.

 

That means it can take a year or so to collect data from all the subgroups.

Overall inflation is expected to slow sharply during the second half of the year as the CPI incorporates the housing price cooldown, economists said.

"It's almost as much of a certainty as you can get, really," Hunter said.

There's an additional housing measurement quirk: The BLS tries to assess price changes for homeowners as well as renters, in a subcategory called "owners' equivalent rent."

The measure is essentially a survey that reflects the price homeowners believe they could get if they were to rent their home. While somewhat tied to market rents, homeowners aren't necessarily feeling those inflationary pressures — especially those who own their homes or have a fixed mortgage, Zandi said.

2. Health insurance

Health insurance prices have been falling by about 4% a month since October, according to CPI data.

Consumers' out-of-pocket costs haven't necessarily dropped, though.

For example, the average person with family insurance coverage through an employer-sponsored health plan saw premiums rise to $509 a month in 2022 from $497 in 2021, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Why the discrepancy?

The government doesn't calculate health insurance inflation by measuring consumers' direct costs, such as monthly premiums. It's hard to assess the value consumers get for those premiums; costs may go up, but consumers don't necessarily get more bang for their buck. An increase in premiums might more reflect poorer underlying health of the insured population than better policy benefits, for example.

So, the government instead measures costs indirectly, based partly on health insurers' profits. Profit margins serve as a proxy of consumer prices.

Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, health insurers' profits jumped. Consumers were still paying premiums but were generally disallowed from visiting doctors or hospitals for elective procedures.

Now, consumers are using their insurance more often. Insurers' aggregate profits shrank in 2021 relative to 2020 since they paid out more insurance benefits — and hence the monthly inflation readings flipped negative.

The BLS updates its profit-related calculations once a year, in October.

Health insurance inflation readings may flip positive in fall 2023 and persist into 2024 due to this dynamic, Zandi said. Health care may be among the few consumer categories notching higher inflation toward year's end when most other categories have been slowing, he said.

3. Consumer electronics

Consumer electronics — like those for smartphones, TVs and computers — were among the few categories that saw deflated prices in 2022.

That trend has continued into 2023: Smartphone prices have declined by 20% in the year through April, for example, according to the CPI.

However, phone prices haven't exactly fallen at the store.

"The consumer isn't necessarily seeing that," said Kenneth Kim, senior economist at KPMG. "To them, it just seems the price has gone up and up and up each year."

The duality is due to a "hedonic quality adjustment."

The BLS adjusts the prices of consumer electronics for quality — improvements in microchips, software and screen resolution, for example — which gives the illusion of a falling price on paper. The agency does the same for other categories like consumer appliances and apparel.

In other words, consumers are getting better-quality electronics for the price they pay. With the adjustment, prices appear to deflate.

"In that sense, it is a lower price because you're getting a lot more value," Kim said.

 

Source: How inflation is measured: 3 examples

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/how-inflation-is-measured-3-examples/

Slowing inflation on rental prices still leaves affordability issues for tenants

WASHINGTON (TND) — Finding an affordable place to live has been a challenge for Americans in numerous parts of the country over the last several years after the pandemic supercharged competition for properties and a longstanding supply shortage sent prices upward.

Rapid growth in prices for homes and rents during the pandemic have slowed this year as high mortgage rates have cooled competition in the real estate market, while more new multifamily buildings like apartments and condos have come onto the rental market.

Realtor.com’s latest monthly rent report for April found rent growth slowed to its lowest rate since February 2020, when the pandemic shut down the world. Median rent in the top 50 metros was 0.3% higher year-over-year with a median asking rent of $1,734 in the report.

“This is promising news for renters, suggesting that the pandemic peaks are behind us, and that the challenging affordability picture may begin to improve," said Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale. "We've seen record-high new construction occurring in the multi-family space, which is creating more units, helping to reduce competition and in turn helping to ease prices."

Redfin said that growth in median asking prices has slowed in 11 consecutive months, and April was particularly notable because rents typically rise at this time of year but instead had a modest decline of 0.2%.

How rent prices are changing is highly dependent on location and is mirroring the housing market in some aspects. Areas that went through huge booms during the pandemic are experiencing the biggest declines, while parts of the country that remained affordable are still having stable increases.

A boom in multifamily construction has helped provide more options for people looking for a place to live, with more units expected to come online later this year and in 2024. New construction for multifamily buildings is at the highest levels since the 1970s.

April’s consumer price index said shelter costs increased 0.4% and rent went up 0.6%, which was the slowest rate of increases in two years. Industry analysts say that data is lagging behind what they are seeing in asking rents and new builds coming to market, which would point to further softening coming.

“The data suggest that easing in the cost of shelter is ahead in future CPI reports. While this could take until 2024 to play out significantly, it will be welcome news for renters and for overall inflation," Hale said.

Builders are facing some potential headwinds keeping up the pace moving forward as high interest rates and turmoil in the banking sector is making it more difficult for them to secure a loan, and some industry experts are expecting new starts to decline this year.

The National Association of Home Builders is expecting a 10% drop-off in multifamily starts this year.

“Commentary from multifamily builders indicates that it has become more difficult to obtain loans for multifamily development as a result of tightening financial conditions due to actions of the Federal Reserve, which reduce future apartment construction,” NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said.

The vacancy rate has also increased as more units come on the market, which helps loosen conditions for tenants looking for a place to live. Realtor.com said in its April report that vacancy rates reached the highest level in two years during the first quarter of 2023 at 6.4%. From 2013 to 2019, the average vacancy rate sat around 7.2%.

Another indication the rental market is shifting toward renters is the number of sweeteners that owners are offering to get people to sign a lease.

Zillow said 27% of rentals listed on the site as of mid-May offered at least one concession, like a free month of rent or parking, to attract new tenants. At the same time last year, the number of listings with concessions was 21%.

More renters are also opting to stay put rather than sign a new lease or buy a home as they are finding it to be the cheapest option along with economic uncertainty and inflation for other necessary items like gas and groceries.

 

Source: Slowing inflation on rental prices still leaves affordability issues for tenants

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/slowing-inflation-on-rental-prices-still-leaves-affordability-issues-for-tenants/

163 E Lincolnway

Just Listed - 23 Unit Multifamily For Sale
$425,000 | Heavy Value-Add | 20.5% Cap Rate (Proforma)
631 E Lincolnway | Morrison, IL 61270
https://www.creconsult.net/for-sale-heavy-value-add-23-unit-multifamily-property-morrison-il/

Chicago's Multifamily Sector Boasts Healthy Occupancy Rates, Strong Rent Growth

Chicago’s multifamily sector currently enjoys strong market fundamentals highlighted by healthy occupancy rates and continued rental rate growth. The current core apartment rents average over $4 per square foot, which is higher than previous peak pricing.

After the pandemic, rental rates between late 2021 to 2022 recorded 10 to 15 percent growth, which is substantially ahead of the historical norms. Currently, the Chicago rental market is experiencing more stable rent growth in the 3 to 4 percent range.

Chicago remains one of the most affordable major markets to rent an apartment when looking at the current average effective rents as a percentage of median household income. This affordability will allow owners to continue to push rental rates in the future.

One of the major factors leading to strong operating fundamentals in the Chicago market is the lack of new supply. The supply in Chicago is currently 1 percent of the inventory, which is quite low in comparison to other markets where there could be as much as 10 to 12 percent of the inventory under construction.

In the city, there are just over 7,000 units under construction slated for delivery between 2023 and 2024. The majority of new development is located in two submarkets, which are Fulton Market and Gold Coast/Near North. In the suburbs, there are nearly 6,000 units slated for delivery through 2024. Suburban deliveries have remained consistent in recent years as investors continue to believe in the fundamentals outside of the urban core.

Spring and summer are typically the strongest leasing seasons in the Windy City and with a very limited supply of new construction in the pipeline, the market is well-positioned for continued strong rent rate growth as well as high absorption.

Investment sales activity in 2022 was $3.2 billion, with the majority occurring during the first half of the year, before the Federal Reserve’s rate increases really took hold and caused a lack of stability in the capital markets.

Among the key transactions to take place last year include the sale of The Elle, formerly known as Alta Roosevelt, in the South Loop to Waterton Associates. The property sold for $170 million, which is approximately $343 per unit or $341 per square foot. The transaction closed in November 2022 and was the largest transaction to take place in the downtown market.

In the suburbs, Ellyn Crossing in Glendale Heights sold to Turner Impact Capital. This 1,155-unit residence sold for $137 million, which is $118,615 per unit and $193 per square foot, and was among the largest transactions to occur in the suburbs last year.

In terms of investment activity, many of the large institutions remain on the sidelines thereby creating a great opportunity for the private capital to acquire assets in the Chicago market. In fact, downtown acquisitions by private investors have continued to increase year-over-year demonstrating their desire to transact with yield premiums and significant discount to replacement cost.

Looking forward

There is plenty of liquidity in the financing markets for multifamily. Agencies continue to provide liquidity during this choppiness in the capital markets, committing $150 billion in dry powder for 2023 volumes. Buyers today are actively seeking neutral leverage and will not settle for negative leverage. Therefore, they are very focused on their going-in cap rate.

Based on what is currently on the market, 2023 is on par with or well-positioned to exceed the activity recorded in 2022. Buyers and sellers are both capitulating, and as both move toward a middle ground, we expect the second half of the year to have even more transactions.

Today is a great time to be an investor and an operator in the Chicago market as the fundamentals have never been better, and pricing is at an above-average yield today with a significant discount to replacement costs.

 

Source: Chicago’s Multifamily Sector Boasts Healthy Occupancy Rates, Strong Rent Growth

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/chicagos-multifamily-sector-boasts-healthy-occupancy-rates-strong-rent-growth/

1120 E Ogden

Retail / Office Space For Lease | 3,674 SF | $20/SF NNN
1120 E Ogden Ave, Suite 101 | Naperville, IL 60563
Broker: Randolph Taylor rtaylor@creconsult.net | 630.474.6441

https://www.creconsult.net/retail-office-for-lease-1120-e-ogden-ave-suite-101-naperville-il-60563/?wpo_all_pages_cache_purged=1

Selling an Apartment Building FAQ's

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Top Frequently Asked Questions on Selling a Multi-family in Chicago

Are you thinking of selling your multi-family property?

Here are some of the most frequently asked questions we get from clients looking to sell multifamily properties in Chicago.

Before You Sell:

How is selling a multi-family different than selling a single-family home?

If you’ve sold an investment property before, you’ll be familiar with the ins and outs of selling a multi-family. However, if it’s your first time, you’ll learn that the process works differently than it would with a single-family or condo.

A large part of a multi-family’s sale appeal will lie in its cash flow. Buyers looking for a multi-family are looking for more than just a home: they will want to see a property that generates good rental income, rents easily, and provides a financial incentive for them to buy. This could be in the form of easy upgrades they can make to boost rental income or as an empty unit for them to occupy and offset their own living expenses.

Do I need a broker to sell a multi-family?

Of course, we’re biased...but we do recommend working with a broker who is experienced in the multi-family market in your neighborhood. Not only will they be able to pull good comps and provide a market analysis of how you should price the property, but an experienced agent will know how to show the proeprty to different types of buyers, whether they are experienced investors or first-time multi-family buyers who want some supplemental income. Brokers who work in multi-family markets are also in the know about rent prices and trends, which will help them sell your home at the right price.

Do I need to make repairs before selling?

Some buyers look for multi-families with units that could benefit from some updating because they see it as an opportunity to raise the rent using some sweat equity. Your agent should be knowledgeable of the renter’s and buyer’s market for your area and property type and will have good recommendations of what types of updates to make before selling.

Making simple upgrades around the property and in common areas like hallways and entryways can be an easy way to boost the property’s curb appeal that won’t break the bank, whether it’s through new fixtures or a fresh coat of paint.

How do I list a multi-family?

One of the most important parts of getting ready to list your property is confirming the number of legal units in the building. In a city full of old homes like Chicago, many apartment units have been created in old basement spaces or have been de-converted into larger single unit. If you sell your property with an incorrect number of legally recognized units, you could face legal issues down the road. To get the most accurate picture of how your property should be valued and listed, get in touch with the local village to confirm the number of legal units listed in their records.

How should I price my multi-family?

Buyers and their lenders will typically appraise a multi-family home using the income approach method instead of simply using comps in the area to compare values. This means that the appraiser will look at the cost of property maintenance and rental income to evaluate a property’s cash flow. To price your multi-family, you should do appraise a building’s income and use comps in the area to accurately represent what someone might want to pay for it.

How should I market my multi-family?

• You’ll want professional photos of each unit to get ready to list your property, which means asking your tenants to clean their spaces and set up a time for the photographer. Having an empty unit comes in handy because it gives you the opportunity to deep clean the space and potentially even stage it with furniture to show off its potential.
• Put together a financial breakdown and lease abstract to show possible buyers. This might include details like current rents, cost of utilities, and other maintenance fees to give them a better idea of potential rental income.

Selling a building with tenants.

How do I sell my multi-family with occupied units?

One of the trickiest parts of selling a multi-family is to make sure that you are aware of your tenants’ legal rights and that you make the selling process as effortless for them as possible.

• Breaking the news to tenants: Announcing that you’re listing your property for sale isn’t the easiest conversation to have with tenants. For them, it means the hassle of cleaning their apartments for multiple showings, a change in landlords, and a potential increase in their rent after the sale. However, you are legally obligated to inform your tenants when you sell the property, so it’s important to have that conversation before getting too far into the selling process.
• Tenant’s rights when a property is listed for sale: To protect yourself from liability and provide a smooth transition for your tenants during the sale process, it’s important to be aware of their rights determined both by the state and by their lease agreement. Your tenants most likely have a right to be notified a set amount of time before showings and have a lease that can’t be terminated just because you want a vacant unit to sell the property. Reread your lease agreements and the tenant’s rights for your city before listing your home or schedule showings.

How do I show a property with occupied units?

An experienced Broker will know the ins and outs of how to show a property with occupied units (which is one of the biggest reasons why you should take your time to find a good agent). The most important concern when it comes to showing units is to make sure that the tenant is aware of the appointment sufficiently ahead of time. Check your lease agreement to see if there are already guidelines in place, or contact your tenant prior to listing the process to come to an agreed-upon amount of days or hours before the showing when they should be contacted.

Have you thought of selling your property and would like to know what it's worth? Request a valuation for your property below:

Request Valuation

 

Source: Selling an Apartment Building FAQ’s

[/ux_text] https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/selling-an-apartment-building-faqs/