Commercial Real Estate Distress 2025 Trends

Introduction

Commercial real estate distress 2025 is taking center stage—but it’s not the crisis many assume. Just ask John Chang, Senior VP at Marcus & Millichap, whose on-the-road market update brings clarity and candor. His perspective captures the volatility of the market—and its resilience.

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The Delinquency Decipher: Is CRE in Crisis?

Is this a wave or just ripples? CMBS delinquency rates rose 50 basis points in 2025—now 200 basis points higher than 2024. But the story is nuanced:

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  Office: 10.3%, still elevated, but below late 2024.

  
  


• 
  

  Industrial: 0.5%, near-zero distress.

  
  


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  Retail: 7.1%, improving from COVID-era highs.

  
  


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  Lodging: 7.9%, elevated but not alarming.

  
  

This isn’t a full-scale meltdown. It's targeted market friction.

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Multifamily Sector: Where Pressure Is Building

The multifamily delinquency rate has reached 6.6% in 2025—up significantly, but still far from the 16.9% seen in 2010–2011. The pressure is localized:

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  Sunbelt metros like Dallas, Phoenix, and Florida

  
  


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  Properties acquired at peak pricing with low-interest debt

  
  


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  Inexperienced operators now facing loan maturity

  
  

Chang notes, “This isn’t widespread failure. It’s a matter of misaligned projections and tighter lending.”

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Lenders Shift Gears: Less Forgiveness, More Action

For years, lenders extended terms or deferred payments. In 2025, that flexibility is gone:

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  Loans must be refinanced or sold

  
  


• 
  

  Notes are changing hands

  
  


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  Foreclosure starts are ticking up

  
  

Distress is entering the market slowly—but firmly.

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Sector Snapshots: Comparing 2025 CRE Delinquency

Office: Still Volatile

10.3% delinquency. Tenant downsizing and hybrid work persist.

Industrial: Strong and Steady

0.5% delinquency. Demand remains robust across logistics and warehouse properties.

Retail: Mixed Outlook

7.1% delinquency. Results vary by submarket and tenant strength.

Lodging: Gradual Rebound

7.9% delinquency. Some assets remain distressed due to slower recovery and rising costs.

Multifamily: Watch the Sunbelt

6.6% delinquency. Still manageable, but the Sunbelt faces investor retrenchment.

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Investor Psychology: Headlines vs. Reality

Distress doesn’t mean discounts. Many troubled properties require capital, repositioning, or involve legal headaches. “Extend and pretend” is fading, but buyers must remain cautious.

The hype? Overstated. The opportunity? Real—but complicated.

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Conclusion: Context is Everything in 2025

Commercial real estate distress 2025 is a market reality—but not a repeat of 2008. Each sector is reacting differently, and smart investors are responding accordingly. The fundamentals remain strong where underwriting was sound.

“Distress isn’t a wave sweeping across the industry—it’s a trickle, highly localized and sector-specific.” — John Chang

 

Source: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7330275843224625152/

https://creconsult.net/commercial-real-estate-distress-2025/?fsp_sid=902

New Listing: Fully Leased Chicago Retail with Value-Add Upside
3217–3229 W Montrose Ave | Albany Park, Chicago
Offered at $995,000 | ±4,000 SF

Fully leased six-unit ground-floor retail property featuring a mix of service, food, and professional tenants. Flexible MTM and short-term leases provide near-term repositioning potential. Current rents average ~$20/SF, with market rates estimated at ~$28/SF MG—offering clear value-add upside. Located on high-traffic Montrose Avenue with 21,000+ vehicles per day, strong CTA access, and a low 3.1% submarket retail vacancy.

View the full listing:
https://creconsult.net/chicago-multifamily-listings/montrose-retail-strip/

Contact:
Randolph Taylor, CCIM
Vice President | eXp Commercial
rtaylor@creconsult.net
630.474.6441
www.creconsult.net

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CALL FOR OFFERS: Friday May 30th
Multifamily Redevelopment Opportunity – 100 W Roosevelt Rd, Wheaton, IL

An exceptional opportunity to reposition two existing office buildings into a 22-unit multifamily community in one of Wheaton's most desirable corridors. Approved zoning and redevelopment plans are in place, supported by strong apartment demand and excellent site visibility along Roosevelt Road.

Key Highlights:
Approved for 22 multifamily rental units
R5 Residential Zoning | Approved PUD
1.51 Acres | 23,864 SF Total
Surface parking with 38 spaces
High-visibility location near downtown Wheaton

Offered at $1,650,000 with a projected valuation of $4,950,000 and an estimated 8.8% cap rate based on stabilized pro forma.

Learn more and view the full Offering Memorandum:
https://creconsult.net/park-place-wheaton-redevelopment/

For more information, contact:
Randolph Taylor, CCIM
Vice President | Investment Sales Broker
eXp Commercial – Chicago
Email: rtaylor@creconsult.net
Phone: 630-474-6441
Website: https://creconsult.net

#MultifamilyRedevelopment #WheatonIL #CRE #InvestmentOpportunity #ApartmentDevelopment #RealEstateInvestment

🏢 FOR SALE: 42-Unit Suburban Chicago Multifamily Portfolio | $5.55M

Stabilized apartment portfolio across three well-maintained assets in Lyons & Chicago Ridge, IL — fully occupied with strong in-place income and rental upside.

🔹 42 Units Across 3 Stabilized Assets
🔹 Well-Maintained with Recent Renovations
🔹 Current CAP Rate: 6.90% | Pro Forma: 8.42%
🔹 Significant Upside Through Rent Increases
🔹 Strong Tenancy | Turnkey Management
🔹 Ideal for 1031 Exchange or Private Portfolio Buyer

📍 Portfolio Includes:
12 Units – 4337 Prescott Ave, Lyons
🔗 sl.creconsult.net/L
12 Units – 7821 43rd St, Lyons
🔗 sl.creconsult.net/7821
18 Units – 9826 Sayre Ave, Chicago Ridge
🔗 sl.creconsult.net/CR

📩 Contacts:
Randolph Taylor, CCIM – rtaylor@creconsult.net | (630) 474-6441
Dave Snehal, CCIM – dave.snehal@expcommercial.com | (773) 230-8055

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Two Adjacent Turnkey Office Buildings For Sale
Near St. Joseph Medical Center | Joliet, IL
2435 & 2439 Glenwood Ave

2435: ±10,311 SF | $1,295,000
2439: ±9,410 SF | $1,100,000

✅ Recently Renovated
✅ Both Delivered Vacant
✅ Fully Furnished (Optional)
✅ Elevator Access (2435)
✅ Ideal for Office, Professional, Medical

Two professionally updated office buildings are located just off Larkin Ave. in Joliet, adjacent to Ascension St. Joseph Medical Center. Offered individually or as a rare ±19,721 SF portfolio opportunity.

View full listings & OMs:
2435 Glenwood Ave: https://creconsult.net/office-building-for-sale-joliet
2439 Glenwood Ave: https://creconsult.net/2439-glenwood-office-sale-joliet


Randolph Taylor, CCIM
Vice President, Broker – eXp Commercial
rtaylor@creconsult.net | (630) 474-6441

#CRE #OfficeForSale #MedicalOffice #JolietIL #Turnkey #CommercialRealEstate #eXpCommercial

CALL FOR OFFERS – Monday May 5th!
3 STABILIZED MULTIFAMILY ASSETS
42 Units | Chicago Ridge & Lyons, IL
Fully occupied, recently updated buildings with rental upside.
Available individually or as a portfolio.

Property Links:
4337 Prescott Ave – sl.creconsult.net/L
7821 43rd St – sl.creconsult.net/7821
9826 Sayre Ave – sl.creconsult.net/CR

Contact for OM or tour scheduling:
Randolph Taylor, CCIM
Multifamily Broker | eXp Commercial
(630) 474-6441 | rtaylor@creconsult.net

#Multifamily #CRE #eXpCommercial #ChicagoRealEstate #CallForOffers #InvestmentProperty

Chicago Multifamily Market 2025

As rising economic uncertainty continues to affect various market segments, one question looms large: how will the Chicago multifamily market outlook 2025 evolve? In the bustling landscape of Chicago’s real estate, investors and property owners are keenly aware of the shifts in demand and the corresponding opportunities. Drawing insights from the latest trends, we’ll delve into the underlying factors shaping the market today.

Current Performance of the Chicago Multifamily Market

The Chicago multifamily market is showing remarkable resilience and growth. Recent data highlights significant trends that property owners and investors should monitor. Understanding these trends can help make informed decisions in a rapidly changing environment.

Strong Absorption Rates in 2025

In the first quarter of this year, the multifamily sector experienced a robust absorption of over 145,000 units, compared to the completion of only 116,000 units. This demonstrates that demand for rental units is outpacing supply, a positive sign for property owners.

For investors across the Chicago metropolitan area, a healthy job market and demographic shifts are fueling strong absorption rates and ongoing demand for apartments.

Low Vacancy Rates Strengthen the Market

The vacancy rate currently stands at a low 5.0%, the lowest since Q4 2022. This low vacancy benefits landlords with higher rental rates and greater negotiation power, creating a favorable environment for real estate investors.

Record Construction Activity and Future Impact

More than 1 million units were constructed nationwide over the past two years. However, new multifamily starts have dropped 76% from their 2022 peak. In Chicago, this slowdown suggests future supply may lag behind demand, potentially pushing rents higher.

Demographic Trends Supporting Rental Demand

Several forces are supporting the strength of the rental housing sector:

• Economic Health: Low unemployment and steady job growth are increasing the need for rental housing.


• Demographics: Millennials (73 million strong) are delaying homeownership, while Generation Z is forming new rental households.


• Affordability Gap: With median home prices above $420,000, many residents are choosing to rent rather than buy.

Future Considerations for Multifamily Owners

While the outlook remains positive, potential mortgage rate increases and building material tariffs could impact future supply. However, historical trends suggest that as consumer sentiment rebounds, pent-up housing demand will boost rental absorption once again.

In summary, Chicago’s multifamily sector offers compelling opportunities. View our latest multifamily listings or request a free multifamily valuation to learn more.

Key Drivers Behind Chicago’s Multifamily Market Growth

Understanding the factors influencing rental trends is critical for investors navigating Chicago’s evolving multifamily environment.

1. Millennials and Gen Z Favor Renting

Millennials, comprising approximately 73 million individuals, are extending their time in rental housing. Meanwhile, Generation Z is entering the market and forming new households, further driving demand for apartments.

2. Affordability Gap Between Renting and Owning

The significant gap between high homeownership costs and moderate rental costs continues to drive the preference for renting. With median home prices exceeding $420,000 and mortgage payments around $3,163 per month, many Chicagoans find renting the more affordable option.

3. Higher Lease Renewal Rates Reflect Stability

Lease renewal rates in Chicago have climbed to 55%, exceeding long-term averages. Higher renewals mean lower turnover costs for landlords and more stable rental income streams, helping to reinforce the strength of the local rental market.

Conclusion: A Strong Investment Climate in 2025

The combination of strong demographics, affordability challenges, and steady rental demand creates a favorable environment for investors focused on multifamily properties in Chicago.

Chicago Multifamily Investment Trends Moving Forward

While challenges remain, the long-term trends continue to favor rental housing investments in Chicago’s vibrant urban and suburban areas.

Construction Slowdowns Present Opportunities

The sharp decline in new apartment construction will likely tighten supply over the next several years, supporting rental rate growth and asset appreciation.

Tariffs May Limit New Supply

Proposed 34% tariffs on imported softwood lumber could further constrain new housing supply. Rising construction costs may benefit owners of existing properties, reducing competition from newly delivered units.

Consumer Sentiment Cycles and Future Growth

While consumer sentiment is currently soft, it is expected to rebound over time. As it improves, pent-up demand will likely drive future household formations and apartment demand across Chicago’s neighborhoods.

Long-Term Multifamily Demand Outlook

Despite short-term uncertainty, multifamily properties continue to show strong fundamentals — supported by healthy job markets, demographic momentum, and affordability advantages compared to homeownership.

Data and insights sourced from Marcus & Millichap's Research Video: "Multifamily Well-Positioned to Face Economic Headwinds." Full video available here.

TL;DR: The Chicago multifamily market outlook for 2025 shows strong demand, driven by demographics, affordability gaps, and construction slowdowns, making it attractive for investors.

https://creconsult.net/chicago-multifamily-market-outlook-2025/?fsp_sid=780