Midwest Multifamily Market Booming: Is Now the Right Time to Sell?

At the halfway point of the year, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Chicago have all seen rent growth well ahead of the national average.

RealPage economists have picked several apartment markets that they expected would perform well in 2024 earlier this year. Those markets included Boston, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, and New York. At the halfway point of the year, the firm took a look at its picks to see how they were doing.

RealPage's picks shared a common theme: limited supply pipelines. That kept many of its top markets ahead of the pack six months into the year. Strong demand is also bolstering Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Chicago, all of which have seen rent growth well ahead of the national average.

San Jose and Washington, D.C., which RealPage predicted would show surprising upside at the start of the year, also have experienced rent growth outpacing national norms. San Jose may be on the cusp of re-securing some job growth due to AI-driven tech improvement, and migration flowing back into the nation's capital has helped support revenue growth, said RealPage.

The firm picked Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Portland, and San Francisco as markets that would face some potential demand challenges. As of mid-year, its predictions have experienced mixed results. Los Angeles and Portland both have struggled to maintain any traction in 2024 as locally sluggish economic growth appears to be holding the markets back, and Portland's annual job loss ranks second-worst among the nation's 50 most populous metro areas. However, Los Angeles has seen modest 0.6% growth despite extremely elevated turnover in Downtown LA and Mid-Wilshire. Los Angeles saw 52% turnover among leases expiring in June 2024, the fourth highest in the country.

The Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth markets both ranked within the nation's top 3 markets for absorption to start the year, pointing to strong demand in those markets. However, at mid-year, rent growth has not materialized in the Texas markets due to large supply volumes. Phoenix also ranks in the top 5 for absorption, yet it has seen persistent rent cuts. Nashville has outperformed to some degree considering the massive local supply figures, said RealPage.

Among its original picks for wild card markets, Atlanta and Tampa have seen performance significantly trail the national average. Atlanta's performance has been impacted by weak rent collections and oversupply, as well as softness in local lease-up properties, with more than a 50% drop in per-property per-month absorption in the first six months of 2024. Newark/Jersey City continues to impress as it appears new supply delivering along the waterfront is attracting some renters who work in Manhattan but are pulled in by the lower rents of Jersey City, according to RealPage.

Is Now the Time to Sell Your Multifamily Asset?

This positive outlook suggests that now might be an opportune moment to consider listing and selling your multifamily asset. By capitalizing on the current market strength, you can potentially maximize your return on investment.

Ready to Discuss Your Options?

eXp Commercial, a leading Chicago-based brokerage specializing in multifamily properties, can help you navigate the selling process. Their team of experienced professionals can offer valuable insights into the market and guide you towards achieving your goals. Contact eXp Commercial today to discuss your plans and explore your options for selling your multifamily property.

Source: RealPage Evaluates Its 2024 Apartment Market Picks

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/midwest-multifamily-market-booming-sell-property/

Dekalb Price Reduced

Fully Occupied 24-Unit Multifamily Dekalb, IL
Price: $1,100,000
Current Cap Rate: 7.75%
Proforma Cap Rate: 9.0%
Below-market rents
Flexicore Construction/Sprinklered
New Boiler/Newer Roof
Resurfaced Parking Lot
Listing Agent: Randolph Taylor
rtaylor@creconsult.net | 630.474.6441

Property Website/OM: https://www.creconsult.net/dekalb-il-multifamily-property-sale-924-greenbrier/

Multifamily Market Stabilization: Rent Growth and Vacancy Rates Improve

The last two years have proven challenging for the multifamily industry, with declining rent growth, rising vacancy, and surging supply. However, the corner may finally be turning, indicating multifamily market stabilization. Jay Lybik, national director of multifamily analytics for CoStar, highlighted these emerging signs in a recent webinar and offered his predictions for the third and fourth quarters of 2024.

Demand Shows a Solid Comeback

The second quarter saw a boom in multifamily demand, with 170,000 units absorbed. This is the highest total seen since the third quarter of 2021, Lybik said. Despite supply that remains near record highs, this increase in demand helped shrink the supply-demand gap to the smallest it’s been in 11 quarters. The supply-demand gap is projected to equalize further in 2025, when projected deliveries are expected to drop by 40 percent.

Vacancy Rates Hold Steady

Thanks to the rise in demand, the national vacancy rate has stopped the sharp upward trendline that began in 2021. After rising slightly from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, the vacancy rate has remained at 7.8 percent for the last two quarters. “This is the first time vacancy hasn’t risen in almost three years,” Lybik said, “and it’s forecast to hold stable through the end of the year.”

Rent Growth Slowdown Has Stopped

Vacancy isn’t the only indicator that appears to be stabilizing. After dropping precipitously from pandemic-era highs, rent growth has been hovering around 1 percent since the middle of last year. This represents a dramatic change, Lybik said, and could even pave the way for rent growth to begin to rise in the third quarter. CoStar forecasts show a slight uptick in rent growth for Q3 and Q4.

Recovery Across Price Points and Regions

Not all segments and regions of the market are equally poised to begin the recovery, however. Luxury apartments, known in the CoStar building rating system as four- and five-star properties, will lag behind. Oversupply has hit this category the hardest. As a result, improvements in rent growth for luxury apartments have remained modest. Rent growth for this class rose from negative territory to 0.2 percent, underperforming both the national average (1 percent) and the average for mid-priced apartments (1.5 percent).

From a regional perspective, the Sun Belt faces similar struggles. This region, after pandemic-era success, now confronts a significant mismatch between high supply and low demand. This has driven rent growth for the region into the red. In the second quarter, the Sun Belt posted cumulative rent growth of negative 1.3 percent, while the Midwest and Northeast tied for first place with 2.5 percent.

Despite these differences, conditions will gradually improve for all price points and regions. “Overall, 2024 has gotten off to a strong start,” Lybik said. At the same time, he warned that inflation and the potential for recession remain significant downside risks for multifamily fundamentals.

Source: https://www.apartments.com/grow/learning-center/state-of-the-market-mid-year-2024-webinar https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/multifamily-market-stabilization-2024/

1150 McConnell

73,245 SF Industrial-Manufacturing-Distribution
1150 McConnel Rd. Woodstock, IL 60098
Price: $4.,750,000
Highlights:
5.2 Acres, M1 Zoning
Owner-User/Investor Offering
5 Dock High Doors/1 Grade Level
Dedicated Active Rail Spur/Dock
Recently Renovated Well Finished Offices
Heavy Floor Load, Heavy Power
1270 McConnell, 16K SF Also For Sale
Listing Agent: Randolph Taylor, CCIM
P: rtaylor@creconsult.net | 630.474.6441
Property Website/OM:
https://www.creconsult.net/industrial-property-for-sale-73245-sf-in-woodstock-il/

Fairway Lakes Estates

For Sale: 77-Acre Golf Course Community (Land)
Fairway Lakes Estates -Frankfort, IL
Price: $6,950,000
60 single-family lots
R-2: Residential Single Family
Golf Course Views-Green Garden Country Club
Public sewer, water, and paved roads
Listing Agent: Randolph Taylor
rtaylor@creconsult.net | 630.474.6441
Property Website/OM:
https://www.creconsult.net/fairway-lakes-estates-development-opportunity/

Multifamily Absorption Posts Strongest Quarter Since 2000

Year-to-date (YTD) absorption has nearly surpassed the total demand from last year

A new report from Cushman & Wakefield bears out the findings of other research reports, namely that demand for multifamily units is booming and so is absorption. Vacancy has reached its lowest point since mid-2021. With construction way down, all the signs point to a recovery of fundamentals, including rents, in the next two years.

With 138,000 units absorbed in the second quarter, multifamily vacancies were pushed down 10 basis points. "Year-to-date (YTD) absorption has nearly surpassed the total demand from last year and is up 75% over the first half of 2023," Cushman reported. It believes the future looks good as a resilient labor market stimulates household formation and wages grow.

2Q2024 was the strongest quarter on record since 2000, the report said. Year-to-date saw absorption of nearly 230,000 units, almost surpassing the total of 253,000 units for the whole of 2023.

"At 8.6%, vacancy remains 150 bps above pre-pandemic levels, but stellar demand levels have resulted in a directional change in the vacancy rate for the first time in 11 quarters," Cushman said.

There were lower vacancy rates in more than half of the 90 markets Cushman tracks in the second quarter than in the first. The sharpest drops were in Reno, Minneapolis, and Richmond. In each city, vacancy fell more than 90 bps in the quarter. By region, vacancies in the Midwest dropped about 30 bps. Even the Sunbelt, with the highest regional vacancy rate of 10%, saw it fall for the first time since the pandemic, with absorption rising most in Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, New York, Austin, and Atlanta.

Despite the surge in uptake, asking rent growth did not match it. It climbed 1.7% over the year, about half its historical average. "The competition for leasing remains fierce in the face of nearly 265,000 units that were delivered in the first half of 2024," the report noted.

The Midwest (4%) and Northeast (3.3%) continued to lead the nation in annual rent growth. The Sun Belt, up 1% quarter-over-quarter, and the West, up 0.9%, could only manage slight upticks in rent.

"Approximately 695,000 units remain under construction, which will create more competition for leases over the next 18 months." At the same time, the 130,000 units started in 2024 are 60% fewer than in the same period in 2023. "The sharp falloff in new construction starts has emptied the pipeline as projects deliver. For the first time since the third quarter of 2021, the Sun Belt no longer has the largest share of units under construction as a percentage of its inventory. That honor now belongs to the Northeast, with 6.2% of its inventory under construction."

Despite the falloff, the report said Sunbelt markets could recover more quickly than the supply pipeline suggests because they are some of the most in demand in the nation. For the nation as a whole, Cushman predicted that fundamentals should begin to recover in 2025–2026.

Source: Multifamily Absorption Posts Strongest Quarter Since 2000

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/multifamily-housing-demand-record-absorption/

Annual Multifamily Rent Growth Remains Steady at 1%

Annual multifamily rent growth has hovered around 1% for about a year following a rapid deceleration in 2021 and 2022.

The U.S. multifamily market has enjoyed the smallest supply-demand gap in 11 quarters as it absorbed 170,000 units during the second quarter on 180,000 new units delivered. Vacancy remained stable from the first quarter at 7.8%, marking the first quarter in almost 3 years that vacancy has not risen, according to a report on 2Q multifamily rent trends by Apartments.com.

Asking rent growth dipped slightly year over year during June to 0.9% compared with 1% growth in the four prior months, although month-to-month rent growth decelerated to 0.1% after three months of 0.4% growth. Annual rent growth has hovered around 1% for about a year following a rapid deceleration in 2021 and 2022.

Both Midwest and Northeast markets turned in a strong performance with rent growth of 2.4% over the past four quarters. These markets have benefited from avoiding oversupply conditions, the report said. Western markets posted rent growth of 0.5% on weak demand and elevated completions, and heavy oversupply conditions in the South kept annual rent growth at zero, according to the report.

Louisville, Kentucky, posted the strongest annual asking rent growth of the top 50 markets nationwide at 4.9%, followed closely by Cleveland and Washington, D.C. Meanwhile, rents fell by 5.7% in Austin, Texas, while rent losses ranged from 3.1% to 2.2% in Tucson, Arizona; Raleigh, North Carolina; Jacksonville, Florida; and Atlanta. Eight of the bottom ten performing markets are in the South, where supply-demand imbalances remain a challenge, said Apartments.com.

Most new supply in multifamily is aimed at the luxury market (4- and 5-star units), which led absorption with just over 123,000 units for the quarter. However, rent growth was stronger in the mid-priced 3-star property market at 1.5% compared with the luxury market where rents grew only 0.2% at the end of June. Net absorption in the 3-star market was 43,000 during the second quarter, up from 33,000 units in the first three months. Improving consumer confidence, lower inflation and sustained economic expansion helped boost 3-star demand, the report said.

Those factors also boosted demand for 1- and 2-star properties, which posted positive absorption for the first time in 2 years. Households at this price point struggled in 2022 and 2023 with higher housing costs and the elevated costs of everyday items, pushing some to seek alternative housing solutions such as moving in with roommates or returning to the family home.

The multifamily market is projected to add 574,000 units in 2024, which is only a slight pullback from the prior year's record. Markets in the South and luxury properties remain most at risk for weakness due to oversupply conditions, while Midwest and Northeast locations and mid-priced 3-star properties could outperform, the report said.

Source: Midwest, Northeast Highlight Improving Multifamily Market

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/annual-multifamily-rent-growth-2024/