Tuesday, November 30, 2021

US Property Price Growth Breaks Records as Demand Swells

 

The headline rate of U.S. property price growth climbed to the fastest annual rate in the history of the RCA CPPI in October amid intense investor demand for commercial real estate. The RCA CPPI National All-Property Index rose 15.9% from a year ago and 1.7% from September, the latest RCA CPPI: US report shows.

For the year through October, investors acquired $523.8 billion of commercial property assets, a 70% increase on the same period in 2021, as shown in the US Capital Trends report, also released this week.  Investors spent more than $200 billion on apartment properties in the first 10 months of 2021, almost double the activity seen at this point in 2020, and more than $100 billion on industrial properties.

Industrial prices rose 18.9% in October from a year ago and 1.9% from September, the fastest annual and monthly rates among the major property sectors. The apartment index climbed 16.8% from a year ago, the fastest rate in the history of the RCA CPPI for this sector. Apartment prices rose 1.4% from September.

The office index increased 13.7% year-over-year in October, a fourth consecutive month of double-digit growth. Suburban office prices continued to drive gains, increasing 15.6% from a year prior. The CBD office index rose 0.9% year-over-year, an improvement from the declines seen for most of 2021.


https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/us-property-price-growth-breaks-records-as-demand-swells/

Monday, November 29, 2021

Here Are the Apartment Markets Attracting New Renters

 

Remote work continues to dominate renter migration patterns, according to data released this week by Apartment List—particularly in tech-hub markets such as San Jose, Raleigh, and Austin.

Dramatic rent increases have hit virtually all corners of the nation in 2021. Nationally, the median rent price is up over 16% since January, and in some cities rent growth is more than double that, Apartment List reported.

“Today, renters who are looking to move are not only dealing with this affordability crunch, but also navigating a tight market with historically low vacancy rates,” according to the report. “At the same time, migration patterns are also being impacted by one of the most significant societal shifts brought about by the COVID pandemic—remote work.”

Top Three ‘Revolving Door’ Markets

San Jose, Raleigh, and Austin are experiencing high turnover with many renters considering moving both in and out.

These three “revolving-door” metros are the only places that appear in the top 10 for both metrics. In San Jose and Raleigh specifically, the cross-metro rate exceeds 50% for both outbound and inbound searches.

These regions stand out as technology hubs heavily disrupted by the remote work revolution. In fact, they rank first (San Jose), fourth (Austin), and eighth (Raleigh) in terms of the share of their workforce that have remote-friendly occupations.

This quarter’s report incorporates the search preferences of users who registered with Apartment List between July 1 and Sept. 30, 2021.

“Newfound flexibility has likely given many residents of these three metros the opportunity to move somewhere new, which in turn creates vacancies that attract new renters from afar,” Apartment List reported. “We have seen this dynamic play out in local rent prices, where over the last 18 months these cities experienced dramatic rent declines followed by similarly-dramatic rent rebounds as residents cycle in and out of the rental market.”

Beyond these three, other technology-friendly markets that are experiencing high outbound migration this quarter (e.g., San Francisco, Boston, Denver, Baltimore) also rank high in terms of remote-friendly workforces and dramatic price swings.

Long-Distance Moves on the Increase

This collision of market trends and changing preferences may result in a greater number of longer-distance moves—in Q3 2021, 40% of Apartment List users were searching to move to a new metropolitan area, and 26% were searching in a different state altogether.

Despite being separated by more than 1,000 miles, Miami is the number one destination for New York City renters, narrowly edging out nearby Philadelphia. 6.1% of searches leaving the New York City metro are destined for Miami, and another 7.8% are destined for other parts of Florida, namely Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville metros.

California: A Major Exporter of Renters

As a large, expensive, and politically liberal state, California has long held a reputation for exporting residents across the country and altering economic and political landscapes along the way. This notion hit a major milestone in 2020, when for the first time in its 170-year history California experienced net population loss, losing over 182,000 residents in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Apartment List search data indicate that this trend may be continuing, as California supplies more search interest across the country than any other state. In the most recent quarter, eight states—Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and Texas—received more searches from California than any other state. In Nevada specifically, over half of all apartment searches came from California residents.


Source: Here Are the Apartment Markets Attracting New Renters
https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/here-are-the-apartment-markets-attracting-new-renters/

Sunday, November 28, 2021

What is Class A Class B or Class C property?

 

A common question we receive from our investors is what do properties marketed as Class A, Class B, and Class C mean, and why does it matter? To begin, investors, lenders, and brokers have developed property classifications to make it easier to communicate amongst themselves about the quality and rating of a property quickly. For investors, property class is an important factor to consider because each class represents a different level of risk and return. Investors can use these differences about property class types to consider how each property fits within their strategy of investing, such as return objectives and the amount of risk they are willing to accept in order to achieve those returns.

Each property classification reflects a different risk and return because the properties are graded according to a combination of geographical and physical characteristics. These letter grades are assigned to properties after considering a combination of factors such as the age of the property, location of the property, tenant income levels, growth prospects, appreciation, amenities, and rental income. There is no precise formula by which properties are placed into classes, but here is a breakdown of the most common classes, A, B, and C:

Class A

These properties represent the highest quality buildings in their market and area. They are generally newer properties built within the last 15 years with top amenities, high-income earning tenants, and low vacancy rates. Class A buildings are well-located in the market and are typically professionally managed. Additionally, they typically demand the highest rent with little or no deferred maintenance issues.

Class B

These properties are one step down from Class A and are generally older, tend to have lower-income tenants, and may or may not be professionally managed. Rental income is typically lower than Class A, and there may be some deferred maintenance issues. Mostly, these buildings are well-maintained and many investors see these as “value-add” investment opportunities because the properties can be upgraded to Class B+ or Class A through renovations and improvements to common areas. Buyers are generally able to acquire these properties at a higher CAP Rate than a comparable Class A property because these properties are viewed as riskier than Class A.

Class C

Class C properties are typically more than 20 years old and located in less than desirable locations. These properties are generally in need of renovation, such as updating the building infrastructure to bring it up-to-date. As a result, Class C buildings tend to have the lowest rental rates in a market with other Class A or Class B properties. Some Class C properties need significant reposting to get to steady cash flows for investors.

What does this mean for investors?

It is important for investors to understand that each class of property represents a different level of risk and reward. Class A provides investors with more security by knowing that they are investing in top-tier properties, with little or no outstanding issues requiring further capital expenditures. However, despite better property conditions, Class A can be sensitive in times of a recession if high-income earners suffer from increased unemployment.

Class B and C properties tend to be bought and sold at higher CAP rates than Class A, as investors are paid for taking on the additional risk of an investment in an older property with lower-income tenants, or a property in a lower-income neighborhood.

The property class investors choose can have a great deal of influence on the stability of an investment over time, as well as its growth appreciation. For investors looking for capital preservation, Class A may be the right investment. For investors looking for capital appreciation, Class B and C may be better investments for that specific risk profile.


https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/what-is-class-a-class-b-or-class-c-property/

Saturday, November 27, 2021

Small Property Sales 'Easily Outpaced' Larger Assets This Year

Sales of properties valued between $5 million and $25 million have “easily” outpaced those from the same period in 2019 and 2020, according to a new report from Green Street, with $28.11 billion in smaller assets changing hands.

That’s an increase of 60%, according to Real Estate Alert data, and “roughly mirrors the hefty 62.3% rise in the institutional segment of deals over $25 million, reflecting a pandemic-induced slump in investment sales in the first half of 2020,” Green Street notes in its report. But “compared with the first half of 2019, however, smaller trades jumped 22.5% in the first half of this year, while aggregate sales over $25 million were up just 2.5%.”

On a year-over-year basis, sales of properties in that range rose among every property type, with industrial leading the way with a 98.9% increase in the first half. Multifamily sales were up 68.5% at $8.61 billion, and larger industrial deals increased by 120.9%. Retail sales increased by about 50% to $5.28 billion and “easily outperformed the over-$25 million marketplace,” which posted a 25.5% improvement.  And office sales increased 29.5% in the first half, while hotel trades rose 17.3%.

“The momentum is strong,” said John Chang, a senior vice president and national director of research services at Marcus & Millichap. “Even with this spike of rising pandemic levels, barring a major lockdown, the private investors that I’ve spoken to are aggressively trying to place capital. I think that carries us through the remainder of this year and into next year.”


Source: Small Property Sales ‘Easily Outpaced’ Larger Assets This Year
https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/small-property-sales-easily-outpaced-larger-assets-this-year/

Friday, November 26, 2021

CRE Investment Volume Is Rising At Strong Pace

Deal volume for US commercial real estate assets rose 74% year-over-year in July and remained well above the average pace set across each July since 2005, according to a new analysis from Real Capital Analytics.

The apartment sector accounted for 35% of CRE investment last month, while office began to make up some ground loss during the pandemic with 26% of sales volume. That increase was mostly comprised of suburban office deal activity, as investment in urban cores and CBDs remain tepid. The suburban price index went up 11.7% last month, while the CBD office index fell 4.6%, RCA analysts say.

Multifamily also led price gains, according to RCA’s CPPI US report released this week. Apartment asset pricing rose 13.5% year-over-year, an increase that’s on track with levels posted during the housing boom prior to the Great Financial Crisis. Also in July, the US National All-Property Index increased 11.8% year-over-year.

Multifamily investment volume increased by 34% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 to hit $52.7 billion, according to CBRE research released earlier this summer. That demand has driven cap rates lower, particularly in cities like Dallas-Fort Worth and Phoenix.  And John Chang, senior vice president and director of research services at Marcus & Millichap, also recently said that bidders, fueled by fears of a continued rise in inflation, were aggressively pushing up apartment pricing.


Source: CRE Investment Volume Is Rising At Strong Pace
https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/cre-investment-volume-is-rising-at-strong-pace/

Thursday, November 25, 2021

Chicago property owners are fighting Cook County Assessor ahead of reassessments

Cook County assessor Fritz Kaegi (Kaegi, Chicago)

Fritz Kaegi knew he was walking into the line of fire when he set out three years ago to revamp Cook County’s property tax assessments. Still, he says, he is pushing to reform the system, which he described as flawed, unfair, and in some cases corrupt for many generations.

He’s already made sweeping changes that have agitated commercial property owners in two of the county’s three triads. Now he’s facing his biggest challenge yet, with downtown Chicago landlords who question his motives and his methods as he shifts more of the tax burden to commercial property owners.

“When you go into a job like this and try fixing a system so broken and so notorious for clout and stuff behind the scenes, conflict is baked in the cake,” he told The Real Deal in an interview.

His efforts to rebalance a system he says has been abused are complicated by the pandemic, which property owners argue should result in their assessments being reduced rather than increased or left the same.

“If it’s a bad year but people are still buying at 50 percent to 60 percent occupancy, that’s a signal the market is looking at something else,” Kaegi said. “We want to have several data points to use.”

Commercial property owners have been critical of the changes to assessments and of Kaegi himself.

Kaegi “is continuing to put his thumb on the scale and assessing offices, retail stores, and hotels – the type that are bearing the brunt of the pandemic’s economic impacts — as being worth almost twice as much as they were before the pandemic,” said Farzin Parang, executive director of the Building Owners and Managers Association of Chicago.

Kaegi’s predecessor Joseph Berrios is under investigation by a federal grand jury probing property value estimations his office made on a number of central business districts and high-end neighborhoods. Included is a Gold Coast mansion Gov. J.B. Pritzker owned that he said was “uninhabitable” after he had all the toilets removed. That resulted in a $331,000 tax break for the billionaire. Pritzker has said, “all the rules were followed.”

Berrios already has paid $100,000 in ethics fines tied to accepting campaign contributions that exceeded limits from lawyers who worked on appeals cases with his office. The amount was only 60 percent of the original $168,000 fine from the Board of Ethics after a settlement.

Now, even as office and retail vacancies are at record levels, commercial properties owners are worried assessments — and their tax bills — will soar as properties whose rates were lowballed under Berrios adjust to market values, even with pandemic concessions factored in. Only apartment building occupancy and rent levels have bounced back after a short-lived exodus during last year’s lockdowns.

“Assessments are out of date and there are huge inequities,” Kaegi said. “I don’t know the alternative that is being proposed instead of market value.” He added he would be “very wary of putting a political filter on” based on some group’s recommendation. “That always comes at the expense of another.” Under Berrios, metrics used to value properties were out of whack on some parcels without explanation and they stayed that way while other like properties escalated in value. Property values on 9,000 Chicago sites, for example, didn’t budge after the financial crisis in 2009 to 2015, through three Berrios reassessments, according to a year-long Chicago Tribune/ProPublica study released in late 2017.

When 2018 reassessment notices on Chicago properties went out before Kaegi was sworn in, many of them saw little to no changes in market value, according to the assessor’s office. A 2020 study by the International Association of Assessing Officers found estimated market values of the city’s commercial properties, on average, equaled only 52 percent of their sales value.

“Study after study has shown they were way off the market values then,” Kaegi said of Berrios’ models. “We need to take favoritism out of the valuation process. We were off track and we’re getting it back to where it should have been all along.”

Some of Kaegi’s critics at the BOMA and the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce worry that huge jumps in property taxes will deter growth and investment in a city that is struggling to recover from the pandemic. Some also accuse Kaegi of tilting the tax burden toward businesses and away from individuals — voters — as mainly a tactic to win reelection.

“It should not come as a surprise to you that the biggest ones that were most under-assessed might try to argue that,” he said. “I don’t think they even accept the idea that assessment should be based on market value, a basic underpinning of the law.”

It’s too soon to say if property values will be doubled though it’s likely a few might.

Higher assessments don’t always lead to higher tax bills, but in this case, some of the largest office and apartment landlords will see tax bill hikes in double digits. Already, some property owners know what to expect, thanks to an early analysis by Cook County Treasurer Maria Papas.

Some of these are very high-profile skyscrapers owned by powerful companies. Blackstone Group’s Willis Tower, Sterling Bay’s Prudential Plaza, 601W Companies’ Aon Center, and Vornado Realty Trust’s Merchandise Mart will pay close to 11 percent more in property taxes, according to Pappas’ office.

“It’s not about burden-shifting, it’s about clarifying where the market is at,” Kaegi said. “Our property tax system is going to be fair when we’re using market values. If not, businesses are poorly served and then it becomes a big game of clout.”


https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/chicago-property-owners-are-fighting-cook-county-assessor-ahead-of-reassessments/

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Chicago Apartment Rents Rise to Seven-Month High

(Getty)

Renters looking for apartments in major cities need to bring more to the table, and Chicago is no exception.

Median rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Chicago jumped 1.2 percent to $1,423 in August from July and is up 4.4 percent from a year ago, according to a report by Apartment List. It has now risen for seven consecutive months.

“Vacancy rates are at an all-time low. [There is] really high occupancy in the rental market,” said Rob Warnock, senior research associate at Apartment List, a rental listing site. “Landlords have the opportunity for the first time in about a year and a half to raise prices and recoup some of the lost revenue from last year.”

With housing supply getting scarcer in Chicago and the rest of the country, prices are going to go up, Warnock said. The median price in Chicago in July came up to its level from March 2020, which Apartment List considers the last pre-pandemic month, he said. The site publishes monthly rent reports for more than 30 U.S. cities using its own listings as well as census data. The new report shows Chicago’s median two-bedroom rent is 14 percent higher than the national average of $1,246 but is affordable compared to prices in other major cities. San Francisco topped the list with an of $2,780 median asking rent for a two-bedroom, followed by New York ($2,070), Washington ($1,800), and Denver ($1,780).

Asking rents for single-family homes in the U.S. jumped nearly 13 percent year-to-date through the end of July. Downtown Class A apartments in Chicago had an 8.6 percent vacancy rate in the first quarter, higher than a year ago.


https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/chicago-apartment-rents-rise-to-seven-month-high/

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