What the Recent Inflation Numbers Might Mean for Multifamily

 

While inflation seems to be moderating, don’t expect the Fed to let up.

Inflation numbers for July were a pleasant change from the recent pace, with prices flat from June. But as the National Apartment Association noted in its NAA Inflation Tracker: August 2022, things are more complex and the chances of the Fed stopping the upward march of interest rates is unlikely to happen immediately.

First the good news: the results were the best since May 2020. There are also other signs that inflation may be near contraction, including the Producer Price Index. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the PPI fell by 0.5% in July, seasonally adjusted.

 

But here’s where things get complicated. “The index for final demand goods fell 1.8 percent in July, the largest decline since moving down 2.7 percent in April 2020,” said the BLS. “The July decrease can be traced to a 9.0-percent drop in prices for final demand energy. Conversely, the indexes for final demand foods and for final demand goods fewer foods and energy rose 1.0 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.”

The line from producer prices to consumer isn’t necessarily straightforward, but as the NAA noted, “The breather in price hikes was due to energy prices, which fell 4.6% over the month. Food prices continued to climb, however, notching another increase in excess of 1.0%. Core CPI rose 0.3% over the month, slower than the prior 3 months, but disturbingly high for prices that are considered to be more “sticky.” The largest increases in core CPI were car insurance (1.3%), car maintenance and repair (1.1%), and rent (0.7%).

 

So, a drop in energy prices masked an increase elsewhere, which means that in one part of life, consumers will feel a benefit, but not in most.

Total shelter costs compose about a third of CPI. “Owners’ equivalent rent, which is the price owner-occupiers think they could attain if they rented their homes, increased 5.8% while rent of primary residence was up 6.3% year-over-year, another 36-year high,” the NAA said. And those numbers lag actual changes in house costs because the data isn’t collected as often as other parts of CPI. Rents may not yet have hit a peak.

That will push people to look for greater pay to keep up with the cost of living, adding to tensions over employment. The last two months have seen big jumps in hiring, which is a big indicator to the Federal Reserve that the economy hasn’t slowed down enough. It seems unlikely that the Fed will back off from additional interest rate increases, which means higher construction and repair costs in the multifamily industry.

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Source: What the Recent Inflation Numbers Might Mean for Multifamily

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/what-the-recent-inflation-numbers-might-mean-for-multifamily/

Fully Occupied 23-Unit Multifamily Offering Kankakee IL

Fully Occupied 23-Unit Multifamily Offering Kankakee IL Listing Broker: Randolph Taylor 630.474.6441 | rtaylor@creconsult.net Price: $995,000 Cap Rate: 7.35% https://properties.expcommercial.com/1030907-sale https://www.creconsult.net/

Sacrificing space: Why are U.S. renters downsizing?

 

In today’s housing market, future homeowners must compromise to save for a down payment. One way to put aside money for a first home? Give up a little space.

In fact, RentCafe found that renters who dream of transitioning to homeownership could save an average of $3,735 per year by simply downsizing by just one bedroom — a sacrifice many renters are jumping on. Nearly 4,000 RentCafe website visitors revealed that 36% of renters were willing to use this method in order to afford their first home.

So where in the nation can renters save up the fastest for a down payment by surrendering one bedroom in their current rental? Well, Chicago secured the No. 4 spot on the Top 50 list, despite having some of the smallest apartments nationwide.

Not only is Chicago the third-largest city in the U.S., it’s also a hot spot for young people. Renters here could save $8,916 per year if able to adjust to one less bedroom, meaning they’d be able to afford a down payment for a starter home in just over two years. The median price of homes is much higher than the preceding three locations on RentCafe’s list, but the higher income earned by Chicagoans makes saving for a down payment almost as achievable as it is in Jackson, MS. Can you guess which city landed at No. 1 on RentCafe’s list? Hint: It’s also in the Midwest. Yep. Renters in Dayton, Ohio are the closest to ownership. The median price of starter homes, $57,652, combined with the yearly savings derived from downsizing a rental, $3,168, would make it possible for a renter to afford a down payment in a little over a year and a half, based on the report. And contrary to Chicago, Dayton is also one of the places with the most apartment space per person, which makes downsizing less of a challenge. Other Midwest locations to make the Top 20 on RentCafe’s list include Lansing, Michigan; Cleveland, Ohio; and Columbia, Missouri.

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Source: Sacrificing space: Why are U.S. renters downsizing?

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/sacrificing-space-why-are-u-s-renters-downsizing/

Rent Growth Diverging Across Office and Multifamily

 

Analysts call the aberration a “great divergence.”

Rent growth across the office and multifamily sectors are no longer in lockstep, disrupting a lengthy period in which the sectors typically followed the same trend, according to a new analysis from Moody’s Analytics.

Last year marked the only time that rents for office and multifamily actually went in opposite directions, analysts say, calling the aberration a “great divergence.”

 

“Companies haven’t fully reopened offices, but households come back to cities anyway,” they say. “Further, in a rebuff of the historic link – it wasn’t just suburban apartment markets feeling the positive demand shock, dense urban areas bounced back, with many having apartment rent levels that have now fully rebounded.”

Office market performance in cities like New York, Tampa, Orange County, Charleston, and Greenville also trended below the US average, with asking rents ticking up 0.8% from 2021 to 2022, but multifamily rents in the same markets “skyrocketed.”  And in Minneapolis, St. Louis, and Columbus, all of which experienced office markets that were above average last year, the apartment market is performing far below the national average.

 

“If people choose where to live based on their office locations, this divergence should not be as evident,” the analysts say. Lifestyle must play a very critical role in this divergence, though the single-family market, zoning regulation, industry types, and other factors affect it as well.”

San Francisco, Jersey City, Manhattan, Philadelphia, and Boston saw the sharpest spikes in lease applications from Gen Z renters in the past year, with increases of up to 101%, according to a recent RentCafe survey. Zoomers also account for more than one-quarter of active renters in the past year in San Diego, Los Angeles, Manhattan, and Philadelphia.

But Moody’s also said it would be “premature” to say that remote work has no negative impact on urban apartment markets.

 

“It is likely that as households age into child rearing, the typical pull of suburban/exurban life could become stronger in an era of hybrid and fully remote office work,” they say. “But it is also true that a particular lifestyle only exists in dense urban areas.”

Ultimately, whether this shift is temporary or permanent remains to be seen: If the prevailing trend of modern life had been households following work, we may now be entering an era where work is following households,” the analysis states.

“At a minimum, the link between office and multifamily performance has dramatically weakened over the past year,” they write. “The US economy is based heavily in the production of knowledge, and the main resource in the process is skilled labor.  If firms still believe there is value in the office, even in a hybrid capacity, they will look to locate within striking distance of those workers.  The link may not be permanently broken after all, but instead, economic strength may be diversifying and shifting towards where people want to be. Time will tell how this dynamic between office and apartment property types plays out.”

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Source: Rent Growth Diverging Across Office and Multifamily

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/rent-growth-diverging-across-office-and-multifamily/

Guide To Commercial Multifamily Real Estate Loans

 

Multifamily commercial real estate loans give investors capital that can be used for acquiring, repairing, or improving multifamily residential properties.

Loans are available for virtually all types of multifamily housing, and many loan programs have specific features that make them well-suited for certain types of housing.

If you need capital for a property, make sure you choose whichever multifamily loan is best suited for your property and the intended purpose.

Get a Free Commercial Real Estate Loan Quote

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What is a Multifamily Property?

Multifamily properties are defined as any residential property with at least two units. Duplexes are the smallest, and there’s no limit to how large an apartment complex can be. Triplexes, quadplexes, bungalow courts, garden apartments, multistorey apartment buildings, townhouses, and high-rise condominiums and apartments are some examples of what multifamily properties can be.

In addition to being categorized by size and layout, multifamily properties can also be classified according to the demographic they serve. Standard housing, senior housing, student housing, assisted living, housing cooperatives, manufactured housing, and affordable/low-income housing are among the most common classifications used by lenders.

Mixed-use properties that combine residential units with commercial spaces can also qualify for select multifamily financing products.

Multifamily vs. Single Family

While multifamily properties technically are any properties that have two or more units, a somewhat different definition is commonly used when discussing multifamily loans.

Multifamily commercial real estate loans are generally limited to properties that have five or more units. Many of the aforementioned properties would qualify for multifamily financing, including most bungalow courts, apartments, high-rises, housing cooperatives, townhouses, and similar properties.

Duplexes, triplexes, and quadplexes might still need multifamily financing, but these properties normally don’t qualify for commercial multifamily loans. Instead, loans for properties that have 2-4 units can be obtained from personal real estate lenders. A lender or loan officer who primarily focuses on home mortgages should be able to assist with financing for these properties.

The most classic single-family property is the freestanding house. Owner-owned manufactured homes, townhouses, and condominiums are often also treated as single for the purposes of financing.

Almost all loans listed below are commercial real estate loans for properties with at least five units.

Multifamily Commercial Real Estate Loan Options

FHA Loans

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) is a division of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). HUD is tasked with making housing affordable and equitable, and it partly does so by offering multifamily commercial real estate loans through the FHA.

FHA loans (also HUD loans) have some of the most generous terms for various affordable housing properties. In general, these loans are known for high allowed leverage rates, low-interest rates, and available long terms. Properties must meet strict criteria to qualify, but the borrower qualification requirements are lower than many other financing options.

There are several different FHA loan programs available, each of which has its own qualification requirements and benefits:

• FHA 223(f) Loans offer fixed-rate and long-term financing for existing multifamily properties. Properties must be at least 3 years old, without any significant renovations within the past 3 years. Investors may use the FHA 223(f) program as long-term primary financing on properties that will be owned for years.
• FHA 223(a)(7) Loans offer refinancing options for existing debt that multifamily properties have. Properties must currently be financed through another FHA program to qualify. Investors may use the FHA 223(a)(7) program to restructure loan terms and/or take advantage of lower interest rates.
• FHA 221(d)(4) Loans offer some of the most leveraged loan terms available for multifamily properties. Maximum terms include 90% LTV, 40-year amortization, and a 3-year interest-only introductory period. The interest-only introductory period and other terms make FHA 221(d)(4) program a good option for new multifamily construction.
• FHA 241(a) Loans offer supplemental financing for major improvements. These loans can be used to install energy-efficient infrastructure, safety features, or expand properties (in special cases).
• FHA 232/223(a)(7) Loans offer financing for senior and assisted living multifamily properties. The FHA 223 program is primarily used for primary financing, and the FHA 223(a)(7) program is for refinancing FHA 223 loans.
• FHA 242 Loans offer specialized financing for hospitals and healthcare facilities (other than assisted living facilities).

Fannie Mae Loans

Fannie Mae provides financing for low-income housing that might not otherwise qualify for commercial real estate financing.

Income requirements for Fannie Mae's commercial real estate loans are quite strict. Properties must meet one of the following criteria:

• Have 20% of units rented to families that earn less than 50% of the area median income (AMI)
• Have 40% of units rented to families that earn less than 60% of the AMI
• Have 20% of units rented through project-based housing assistance (i.e. Section 8)

Most properties that already participate in housing assistance payment (HAP), low-income housing tax credits (LITHC) or Section 8 can qualify.

For qualifying properties, Fannie Mae’s loan terms are competitive with what other lenders currently offer. Fannie Mae’s terms are especially attractive if traditional financing is unavailable, or difficult to secure.

Freddie Mac Loans

Freddie Mac underwrites real estate loans for both single-unit and multi-unit residential properties. Commercial financing for multifamily properties requires at least five units.

For multifamily properties with at least five units, Freddie Mac offers several different loan programs that afford flexibility. The agency’s programs include:

• Freddie Mac Fixed-Rate Loans offer flexible primary loan financing. The loans are available for both standard and affordable housing, and the balance, term, and leverage allowances have relatively wide ranges within which they can be adjusted. Investors may use Freddie Mac Fixed-Rate Financing as a primary mortgage on properties they intend to hold.
• Freddie Mac Floating-Rate Loans offer similarly flexible primary loan financing, but with a variable interest rate rather than a fixed interest rate. Most of these loans have terms of 10 years or less because of the variable rate, whereas fixed-rate loans sometimes go as long as 30 years. Investors may use Freddie Mac Floating-Rate Financing as a primary mortgage when interest rates are low, or for properties that will be held for a few years but not longer.
• Freddie Mac Fixed-to-Floating Loans combine a short-term variable interest rate with a longer-term fixed one, while still maintaining fairly flexible terms. These loans usually have a 9-year term (2 variable /7 fixed) but are otherwise fairly flexible. Investors might use Freddie Mac Fixed-to-Floating Financing when interest rates are low, or if they want to have more capital available for construction or rehab.
• Freddie Mac Student Housing Loans offer specialized financing for medium and large student housing apartments or townhouses.
• Freddie Mac Senior Housing Loans offer specialized financing for independent living, skilled nursing, assisted living, age-in-place, and memory care facilities.
• Freddie Mac Manufactured Housing Loans offer specialized financing for medium and large mobile home parks, or other manufactured housing communities.
• Freddie Mac Green Advantage Loans offer specialized financing for energy-efficient improvements. Investors must demonstrate that an improvement will result in a direct and substantial green improvement, and they must also commit to reducing water usage by 25%. Freddie Mac Green Advantage Financing is acquired in addition to a primary loan, and the program allows for a 5% higher LTV.
• Freddie Mac Supplemental Loans offer financing for unexpected expenses, such as major improvements or repairs.
• Freddie Mac Small Balance Loans are available for smaller multi-unit properties, including duplexes, triplexes, and quadplexes.

CMBS Loans

Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) loans are resold as an investment. Investors use them for fixed-rate returns that have low downside risk.

CMBS loans are among the most common non-government loans for commercial real estate, as they have more lenient requirements than some other private loan programs. They may be used for multifamily properties that can’t be financed via Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, and commercial, industrial, and mixed-use properties also qualify. Loan amounts can range from as little as $1 million to as much as $1 billion.

Bridge Loans

Bridge loans provide short-term financing that “bridges” a gap. The loans are frequently used when acquiring properties or completing renovations, and almost all property types can be financed.

Most ridge loans have terms of 3-6 months. Underwriting may consider as-is value, as-stabilized value, or value-add plans. Revenues tend to be less important for these loans, as the loans are designed for purposes other than long-term financing. Buildings might not even be occupied for the entire duration of a bridge loan.

Investors may use bridge loans to finance acquisitions and renovations, or they might be used for immediate short-term flips. The latter is a somewhat uncommon use, though, because the flip must be completed within 6 months. Bridge loans have to be refinanced with another loan program whenever a property is held for longer than the loan term.

Conventional Loans

Conventional loans are a multifamily financing option if government-backed and CMBS loans aren’t available. These loans aren’t a suitable alternative for bridge loans, although banks directly underwrite both bridge and conventional loans.

Because banks directly underwrite conventional commercial real estate loans, banks themselves can determine what the lending requirements and loan terms are. Lending requirements aren’t necessarily any more relaxed than government-backed programs, and they can be slightly stricter because there isn’t a government guarantee.

The flexible terms make these loans available for virtually all multifamily properties, however, including distressed ones that might not be financed any other way.

Specific requirements and features depend on what a lender offers, and some lenders have multiple conventional financing options.

How to Get a Multifamily Loan

Financing a multifamily investment property requires evaluating all available programs, including both their eligibility requirements and loan features. Which multifamily commercial real estate loan program is best for a particular property depends on the property details, borrower qualifications, loan eligibility requirements, intended use of funds, and other details.

You can sort through all available loan options manually, or you can do so with an online multifamily loan tool.

Manually Find Multifamily Commercial Loans

While you can sort through loan options yourself, doing so is time-intensive. Only investors who are already familiar with multifamily financing tend to go this route. For instance, you might manually check loans if you already have a lender and loan program you want to use.

In rare cases, manual loan comparison might be necessary for multifamily properties with highly unique considerations.

Using an Online Loan Comparison Tool

For a more streamlined loan comparison process, use the CommLoan commercial loan finder. Simply follow the guided process, and the tool will take you through the complete process of getting quotes. At the end of the process, you’ll receive several loan quotes that can be compared. Check their eligibility requirements and terms, and apply for whichever one best suits your property and purpose.

Once you’ve chosen a quote, a lender will guide you through the remainder of the loan application process. They can help you not only apply to their institution but also apply for any government program that you’re using.

Prepare for Your Loan Application

If you haven’t already compiled these documents and figures, it’ll be helpful to know your property’s basic details, current value, expected value, building costs (if new construction or renovation), occupancy rates, and other relevant details. Additional details may be needed for specific government programs.

Lenders will also likely ask for information about your multifamily real estate investing activity. They may want to know your portfolio’s value, total outstanding loans, property revenues and expenses, ownership structure, and some other information. Your application will be considered based on the property and your current position.

Get Quotes for Multifamily Commercial Real Estate Loans

If you have an upcoming multifamily property acquisition, improvement, renovation, repair, or debt restructuring, begin the process of comparing loan options today. Some loan programs (especially government-backed ones) have longer processing time frames, so financing isn’t something you should delay. Get quotes now for multifamily commercial real estate loans, and ensure that you have enough time to obtain the best possible financing for your property.

Get a Free Commercial Real Estate Loan Quote

Fill out the form below for expert assistance from our team of Loan Consultants.

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https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/guide-to-commercial-multifamily-real-estate-loans/

Apartments.com Publishes July 2022 Rent Growth Report

 

National Year-Over-Year Multifamily Rent Growth at 8.4%, Down from 9.4% in June

WASHINGTON – Today, Apartments.com – a CoStar Group company – released an in-depth report of multifamily rent growth trends for July 2022 backed by analyst observations.

“Throughout the month of July, while multifamily yearly rents continued to perform well above historical averages, the deceleration of rent growth quickened at a time when markets typically post their best results,” said Jay Lybik, National Director of Multifamily Analytics, CoStar Group. “The deteriorating rent situation highlights a significant collapse of demand in the sector when new unit deliveries are projected to hit 230,000 in the second half of 2022.”

SUNBELT MARKETS REMAIN IN TOP 10, START SEEING DRAMATIC PULLBACK

According to Apartments.com, Sunbelt cities dominated the top 10 rent growth markets in July with eight out of 10 located within the region. Florida continued boasting seemingly strong demand with four of the five top markets located in the state, including Orlando, Fla.; Miami, Fla.; Fort Lauderdale, Fla.; and Palm Beach, Fla.

However, the markets with the fastest growing rent in 2021 are now experiencing the quickest pullback. For example, Palm Beach has seen a dramatic slowing of growth with year-over-year asking rents decreasing from 30.6% in Q4 2021 to 12.7% at the end of July 2022. Tampa and Las Vegas have also seen rents retreat by over double digits so far this year. BAY AREA MARKETS BUCK DOWNWARD TREND On the flip side, the San Francisco and East Bay markets challenged the downward rent growth trend. San Francisco’s average asking rents are now just $18 below their all-time peak of $3,116 in Q2 2019 as rents rose 40 basis points over the past 30 days to 5.0%. The East Bay also held strong at 5.5% throughout the month of July. MONTH OVER MONTH DATA PAINTS A DETERIORATING RENTAL MARKET PICTURE Analysts have found that looking sequentially, 12 markets saw absolute asking rents decline over the past month, the first occurrence since 2020. Miami led the charge with average asking rents down $11 during July, in addition to five markets that reported no change in rents over the last 30 days.

The stark reversal for Sunbelt markets can be seen vividly in the month-over-month chart. Markets that saw negative or flat rent growth in July are dominated by Sunbelt locations, including Fort Lauderdale, Austin, Orlando, Charlotte, and Tampa, amongst others. With the spring/summer leasing season appearing to be significantly lacking demand, the risk of rents falling below CoStar’s current year-end forecast of 6.3% is growing. Over the next few months, analysts will be watching the state of the multifamily market and keeping a close eye on Sunbelt markets that are taking a turn.

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Source: Apartments.com Publishes July 2022 Rent Growth Report

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/apartments-com-publishes-july-2022-rent-growth-report/

MULTIPLE REAL ESTATE SECTORS POISED TO BENEFIT FROM JULY INFLATION SLOWDOWN

 

Inflation trend may be turning the corner. The headline Consumer Price Index in July was up 8.5 percent compared to a year prior, a deceleration from the 9.1 percent year-over-year jump recorded in June. This slowdown was driven predominantly by a month-over-month decline in energy prices, led by a 7.7 percent drop in the gas price component of the index. The costs of other items, most notably food, continued to rise, however. Setting aside energy and food, core CPI advanced 5.9 percent year-over-year in July, matching the pace set in June but below the 6.4 percent, year-over-year increase reported in March. Stability in the core index paired with a smaller rise in the headline rate suggests that inflation may have peaked, likely a reflection of less impeded supply chains and tightening monetary policy.

Supply chains factor into inflation, and industrial space demand. While the collective 225-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate so far this year is weighing on borrowing activity, it is not the only factor contributing to decelerating inflation. Supply chains are also showing improvement. The transit time between shipping goods from China to the U.S. has declined from a pandemic peak of 83 days to 63. While still above the pre-2020 norm of 48 days, this shift is nevertheless helping supply better meet demand, softening upward pricing pressure. Adapting to these challenges has translated into a robust uptake in industrial space. Absorption has been elevated since mid-2021, driving the national vacancy rate down 120 basis points year-over-year in June to 3.7 percent, its lowest level since at least 2000. Record construction should help stabilize availability this year, with competition by tenants propelling asking rents up by double-digit percentages.

Additional quantitative tightening is still on the docket. While slowing, inflation is still high, which will likely prompt the Federal Reserve to raise the overnight lending rate again in September. Next month the Fed will also double its level of balance sheet reductions to $95 billion in monthly volume. Long-term interest rates, such as the 10-year Treasury, will likely feel upward pressure as a result. The combination of elevated inflation and climbing interest rates will be a challenge for investors, however, the market has already begun to recalibrate. In some cases, prices are being adjusted or buyers are reducing leverage. Investors may also be considering new locations or asset types. Overall, the market is liquid, with investors holding favorable long-term outlooks.

Additional CRE Trends:

Multifamily outlook is largely unfazed. The impact of high inflation and rising interest rates is so far not having a substantial impact on the underlying need for housing. Demand for apartments surged in 2021, with net absorption eclipsing 650,000 units, nearly double the previous peak. That metric has been more tempered in the first half of 2022, due in part to delayed eviction proceedings, as well as limited options for prospective tenants. June’s 3.2 percent national vacancy rate was a three-decade-plus low for that time of year. Tight availability aids rent growth in the near term, while a structural housing shortage also lends strength to the outlook for the next three to seven years.

Lower fuel costs boost hospitality outlook for rest of year. The energy component of CPI, which was up 43.5 percent year-over-year in June, took a notable step down last month, with prices falling across oil, gasoline, and natural gas. This shift bodes especially well for travel. Hotels have already seen increased bookings throughout the year, despite higher fuel costs. June occupancy was just above 70 percent, a pandemic-era first, even with an average daily room rate more than 15 percent above the same point in 2019, which helped compensate for higher costs. The ability to reprice rooms on a daily basis can also appeal to investors concerned about short-term cash flow during elevated inflation.

0.0%	8.5%
Change in CPI from June 2022 to July 2022	Year-over-Year change in CPI as of July 2022

 

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* CPI as of July, 10-year Treasury as of August 10 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; Bureau of Labor Statistics; CoStar Group, Inc.; RealPage, Inc.; Federal Reserve

  Source: MULTIPLE REAL ESTATE SECTORS POISED TO BENEFIT FROM JULY INFLATION SLOWDOWN

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/multiple-real-estate-sectors-poised-to-benefit-from-july-inflation-slowdown/