Should I Sell or Should I Hold? When is the best time for asset repositioning?

When it comes to selling their investment properties, clients typically ask me,’ Why should I sell?’ Great question. Why should you sell? The obvious answer is that you purchased the investment property as an investment, and it may not be doing as well as other investment opportunities, and after a while, you don’t realize the appreciation and thus maximization of profit from the property until you sell and acquire another investment property. So the question is really, ‘When should I sell? Clients really lose the perspective of the driving reason why they invested in an investment property in the first place. An investment property is just that; an investment. Treated as such, every investment must have a horizon and an exit strategy. If a property was purchased as an investment, then it makes full sense to profit as much as possible from the investment.

The real estate market, like any other market, will go through peaks and valleys. Trying to predict the exact moment of peak or the exact moment the market reaches the bottom is practically impossible. The real estate cycle has four phases; recovery, expansion, hyper supply, and recession. The complete real estate market cycle seems to have an average duration of about 18 years as there is good historical data to support that. So, where are we in that cycle now? How much more upside will we see before we reach the peak? The question really is, ‘What is your appetite for risk?’

Below is a chart of the real estate cycles dating back from the 1800s. The last real estate market crash started at 2006. We are almost 16 years into that cycle. Interest rates are still at all-time lows. Money is cheap, and the threat of inflation is very high. How long can government print money without paying the price down the road? How much road do we have left?

So when is a good time to exit an investment property? As with everything else, real estate is cyclical. Those of us that have been around for some time have witnessed several cycles in the real estate market. Since it is practically impossible to predict the peak of cycles, what strategy should you then use to maximize your investments? Keeping it simple, when evaluating if you should consider selling an investment property, it doesn’t really matter what the current real estate market is like. If you are looking to replace the investment property with another investment property, the ultimate decision to sell should also be based upon if you can increase your returns with the new replacement property, not what state the current market is in now.

There are a number of factors that can impact real estate prices; availability, investment potential, and interest rates, to name a few. Interest rates impact the price and demand of real estate—lower rates bring in more buyers due to the lower cost of money but also expand the demand for real estate, which can then drive up prices. As interests rate starts to inch up, the cost of money increases, and thus the appetite for real estate investments declines.

However, there are many ways that one can still protect their investments. 1031 Exchanges give investors a vehicle to reposition assets and mitigate risk. There are certain asset classes that inherently hold less risk and still perform as an investment vehicle. The questions really come down to; ‘How long do I hold on during this cycle? Do I have the time horizon to outlast another cycle? Is it time to reposition and take advantage of 1031?

As part of the team for our client’s investments, we specialize in building solutions around our client’s needs. We analyze the requirements, crunch the data, and present assets entirely based on their circumstances and the goals they are trying to achieve with their investment.

Have you thought of selling your property and would like to know what it’s worth? Request a valuation for your property below:

Request Valuation

 

Source: Should I Sell or Should I Hold? When is the best time for asset repositioning?

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/should-i-sell-or-should-i-hold-when-is-the-best-time-for-asset-repositioning/

How to Get the Most Profit When Selling Your Investment Property

All too often I receive inquiries from a potential seller that wants to “get the highest price” for their property, but does not want to list it, or market the property. This seems counter intuitive, especially to the basic law of economics… supply and demand. Although there is not much an average seller can do to affect the supply line, they can create demand by using a good agent.

We’ve seen this over and over the last few years in this current “sellers” market. Almost to the point where we now receive as many calls from investors saying they only want to look at “off market” deals, believing they’ll get a better price without other competing investors. So, is the answer that simple? If seller wants the highest price, do they just need to make sure the property is seen by as many possible interested investors?

Not exactly, to ensure the greatest exposure for the property, and therefore the best likelihood for the highest price, a seller should make sure the agent they use to represent them does ALL of the following, not just market to their own buyers. After all, even if that agent has a buyer it doesn’t mean that the agent’s particular buyer will pay the highest price. A good agent will create a marketing plan to provide maximum exposure for the property. This plan should include:

1) Placing it in Multiple Listing Services

2) Contacting every owner of similar properties within the surrounding few blocks to see if other landlords are interested in acquiring additional investments in the area.

3) Sending out email flyers to their buyers’ lists, local brokers, and property owners.

4) Making direct contact with every client that has purchased an investment property within the last two years.

5) Making direct contact with every broker that has represented a buyer that purchased an investment property in the last two years.

This may sound like a lot of work , but a good agent will go above and beyond.

Please do realize though that no experienced real estate agent is going to do any of the above if they are not insured a representation commission. So to ensure maximum exposure, and thus maximum returns, make sure you draft up and enter into a fair listing agreement that details out what the agent will do for you, and what type of compensation they can expect from a sale

 

Source: How to Get the Most Profit When Selling Your Investment Property

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/how-to-get-the-most-profit-when-selling-your-investment-property/

9 Mistakes Property Managers Make with Utility Management

Utilities are one of the biggest expenses for apartment communities. And with inflation pushing the price of utilities to record-highs, it’s even more important that you’re keeping these expenses to a minimum.

Luckily, the right utility management strategies will not only help you keep costs down, but present an opportunity to bring in added revenue. Before that can happen, you need to assess every aspect of your utility program. Because most companies usually have a few areas that need improvement. Here are the most common mistakes that result in apartment operators spending more than they should on utilities.

#1 Including utilities in the price of rent

The worst mistake you can make with utilities is including them in the price of rent. That’s because you aren’t recouping money to match your actual expenses. Plus, residents don’t receive any kind of utility bill, which does not give them any motivation to conserve.

Another problem with including utilities in the rent is that it’s difficult to raise rent and remain competitive with other apartment communities. With rents rising so steeply over the past year, apartment residents are more sensitive than ever to rent prices. A “utilities-included” model can scare away some prospective renters if other communities in the area charge for utilities and have lower rent.

#2 Charging a flat fee for utilities

Charging a flat fee is also a risky move since utility costs fluctuate. And lately, they only seem to be going up. Your fee has to be high enough that you aren’t losing money, but you also can’t overcharge either. In some states, overcharging for utilities is illegal.

#3 Neglecting inefficient features that waste energy and impact NOI

When your buildings are not energy efficient, it hurts your business in two ways. One is that you use more energy which ultimately means higher expenses (and lower NOI).

The other way is that it could detract renters. An ACEEE study found that not only were renters more likely to visit communities that advertised energy efficiency, they were also willing to spend a little more on rent. On average, renters would increase their budget by 1.8% for a one-unit increase in energy score (on a scale from 1 to 10). That generates $400 per unit in additional annual revenue for an average-priced rental unit.

#4 Overlooking important utility metrics

Monitoring data associated with utilities is one of the most effective ways to improve your overall utility program. But many multifamily companies don’t do this at all or to its fullest potential.

However, by not actively monitoring utility data, you are missing opportunities to reduce your expenses and improve revenue. Plus, many cities and states are enacting laws requiring multifamily buildings to annually assess and report their energy performance. Like it or not, reviewing utility data is more important than ever.

#5 Paying utility bills without auditing them

Many companies simply check the balance due amount before issuing a payment. That strategy can result in a mountain of unnecessary charges. According to studies done by Engie, one of the nation’s largest utility billing auditors, at least 17% of utility invoices contain an error. With all the invoices your firm receives, it’s likely many have errors that go unnoticed.

This is why utility billing audits are so important. With the help of utility expense management companies all of your utility bills are audited for errors and savings opportunities. When errors are spotted, the provider disputes the charges on your behalf until a resolution is achieved.

#6 Accumulating and paying late fees every month

Most utility invoices have a fairly short payment window. To further complicate things,  sometimes your utility invoices don’t arrive at all, forcing your associates to track down what’s missing.

Because of these two scenarios, it’s easy to get dinged with late fees. That’s unfortunate, because they can really add up. Many utility companies assess fees that are equal to a 12-, 18-, 24-, or 36-percent annual interest rate. In other words, utility late fees are steep. And they add up in a major way. It’s vital to your NOI that utility invoices are always paid on time.

#7 Paying for renters’ utilities after they move in

Utility theft can cost property management companies thousands of dollars per year. Most of the time, this happens simply because renters forget to transfer utilities into their name. Whatever the reason, this miss can lead your company to pay thousands of dollars per year in charges that aren’t yours.

#8 Failing to monitor utility regulations for your states

Each state and municipality has different rules around handling utilities. So if you operate in different regions, it’s necessary to see what rules apply to each and every community in your portfolio.

The consequences for violating utility regulations can be costly. Most states levy fines on a per instance basis. So let’s say you’ve made a minor error in billing your entire 300-unit community. That’s 300 fines imposed - not 1!

#9 Overlooking the utility payment experience

How residents receive and pay for their utility charges is often an overlooked component of a utility management strategy. But if you aren’t taking into consideration how the process goes from a resident’s perspective, you could be damaging your bottom line.

In the short term, a poor payment experience can lead to late payments and frustrated residents, particularly if they need more clarity about their charges.

In the long run, a poor utility payment process could impact resident retention. When the payment process is inconvenient, or when residents don’t feel well-informed about what they owe, it impacts satisfaction since the situation is repeated month after month.

How to overcome utility management mistakes

If your company is making any of these mistakes, don’t worry. There are several easy strategies to get you back on track. Your best bet is to consult with a utility management provider that specializes in the multifamily industry. They can advise you on the most effective ways to tighten your expenses.

 

Source: 9 Mistakes Property Managers Make with Utility Management

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/9-mistakes-property-managers-make-with-utility-management/

How Real Estate Can Beat Inflation

How Real Estate Can Beat Inflation

 

Former president Ronald Reagan once remarked, “Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.” While there’s a fair amount of hyperbole in that statement, the comparison of inflation to a robber is an apt one. As a market force, inflation can and will devalue your investments. Fortunately, investors have a powerful tool to restore some balance.

Understanding inflation

What exactly is inflation? The simple definition of inflation is “a general increase in prices and a fall in the purchasing power of money.” The rate of inflation is measured by the Consumer Price Index and reflects the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services. There are three things that lead to inflation:

• A cost push, which is an overall rise in prices
• A demand pull, which is a surge in demand for something
• Printing money, which happens when a government is facing a shortfall

The housing market, like all other economic sectors, is impacted by inflation. If there’s a reduction in the available inventory or an increase in demand, prices will go up, as we’ve seen. The price of a house can rise because the actual structure itself may be worth more due to rising lumber costs, but also because people see value in it as an investment.

How to Outperform Inflation

If you were to take your money and leave it in a savings account, you wouldn’t even get a one percent return. Simultaneously, the rate of inflation between April 2021 and April 2022 was 8.3%. Your money would actually lose its purchasing power by sitting in a savings account.

An excellent way to combat inflation is through real estate investing, especially in the rental property market. Even with high inflation, real estate still appreciated well above the general rate of inflation in the past year. While that year-over-year increase in asking rents and home prices could be an anomaly, the demand for rental housing clearly is not. In a study earlier this year, mortgage-finance company Freddie Mac estimated that the national deficit of single-family homes stood at 3.8 million units at the end of 2020. While that shortfall could eventually be made up for, that’s not likely to happen soon. In the meantime, a lot of would-be homeowners will remain in the rental market.

Even if you were to finance your rental property, you’d still be better off financing a rental property than putting your money into a savings account. It sounds counterintuitive, but your debt would be fixed while the rent you could charge would increase with inflation. With tenants paying off your loan, you’d be able to capture the benefits of inflation, both in the rent you could charge, and when you eventually sell your property.

While we don’t know how long we’ll be facing high inflation, investment properties will hedge against inflation for as long as you own them.

 

Source: How Real Estate Can Beat Inflation

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/how-real-estate-can-beat-inflation/

Multifamily Revenue Management in the Dock

Multifamily Revenue Management in the Dock

A recent article published by ProPublica: "Rent Going Up? One Company's Algorithm Could Be Why," is the latest to inform us on how revenue management works.

Observers of the industry cannot miss this article, as it appears to have occasioned a high-profile class action lawsuit filed in a San Diego court. The lawsuit is not the subject of this blog. But as usual, when I read criticism of revenue management that stems from a misunderstanding of how it works, I feel duty-bound to respond. There are three important claims that the article gets wrong, each of which I will address below. 

Misunderstanding Cause and Effect

ProPublica strongly suggests that revenue management software is causal in driving up rents across the market. It uses two sources of information to substantiate this claim: Publicly available quotes from revenue management "experts" and context-free statistics relating to performance. 

For example, the statement that an operator "outperforms their market by 4.8%," when placed alongside an unrelated quote about how revenue management software drives large rent increases, might look like cause and effect to the untrained eye. But those who understand multifamily revenue management know that a 4.8% outperformance is not the same as a 4.8% inflation of prices, as the article suggests. 

Operators improve performance by making better, more analytically-informed decisions further in advance. Sophisticated algorithms predict future supply and demand and avoid problems that would otherwise result in underperformance. When operators make fewer bad decisions, revenue performance improves—none of this entails price-gouging.

Beware of Conspiracy Theories

Secondly, the article and lawsuit both make the bizarre allegation that RealPage is running "a new kind of cartel" on behalf of its clients. The logic goes that because many people in the same markets are pricing their units using the same algorithm, the company running that algorithm must be coordinating supply and demand and ultimately inflating the price of apartment units for an entire market. 

This is dangerous nonsense. Revenue management software cannot coordinate supply and demand between properties or across markets. And the pricing recommendations that the software issues are executed through pricing calls, where stakeholders in a property's performance meet to review price changes for an individual property. 

The stakeholders making the pricing decisions must meet or exceed performance expectations, which places a natural focus on the financial well-being of the individual property for which they are responsible. It leaves no room for the kind of mustache-twiddling manipulation of market forces that the article insinuates. 

How Multifamily Revenue Management Software Actually Works

The final point the article gets wrong is that the software's algorithm may be artificially inflating rents and stifling competition. I will assume positive intent on behalf of ProPublica's writers and say that they misunderstand the arguments they have constructed to substantiate this claim, but they are wrong. 

For example, the article says many things about data sharing and using the same algorithm across the market, suggesting that the algorithm controls supply and demand at a level above the individual property. Many competing multifamily firms are indeed using the same algorithm, but their pricing activities have nothing to do with one another. 

To use a common parallel: Saleforce.com (SFDC) runs most companies' CRMs (a far higher proportion of the addressable market than any revenue management software). Each client's CRM is filled with highly confidential information. Following ProPublica's logic, we would conclude that SFDC coordinates sales activities between the companies that use it. They clearly aren't, and revenue management software is no different. High market penetration is not evidence of collusion. 

In another related misunderstanding, the article quotes RealPage's description of "Disciplined analytics that balance supply and demand to maximize revenue growth." The writers explain that individual actors cannot balance supply and demand by themselves (suggesting that the statement by itself must be evidence of collusion). 

Once again, those familiar with revenue management get what "balancing supply and demand" means in this context. There is a certain amount of potential renters for my property (demand), and I have a certain number of units to sell (supply). And by using an algorithm to make predictions about supply and demand, we can make better pricing decisions to optimize our share of available demand. That is what "balancing supply and demand" means—it is about efficiency, not collusion. 

A Sadly Familiar Theme

What is different about this piece compared to previous critiques of revenue management is the way it co-opts a sadly familiar theme. The article suggests that we should be suspicious of property management companies and developers who seek to make their businesses more profitable. It's the same wrongheaded logic that leads local jurisdictions misguidedly toward rent control. 

We have a housing crisis in the United States, and there is only one way to solve it: to build much more housing. You cannot solve a supply and demand problem like housing affordability by trying to make providers less profitable.  

ProPublica was conceived as a not-for-profit investigative journalism outlet designed to serve the public interest. It appears to believe that by attacking landlords (and their suppliers) for attempting to improve their performance, they are contributing to making housing more affordable. This intuition is quite wrong: more success attracts the capital needed to create more homes. 

To put it another way, we cannot solve a housing crisis by making profitability and performance dirty words in our industry.

Revenue management is not about gouging customers—the people who think it is are missing the point. And as the former CMO of Rainmaker (where LRO was part of my remit), I cringed at the quotes in both the article and the legal complaint about rent increases from professionals who ought to know better. Spiking the ball on large rent increases shows a poor understanding of the economic impact of revenue management and is out of place in an industry for whom housing affordability is a top priority.

We will watch with interest how this conversation plays out. I expect there will be an extensive discussion of this topic at OPTECH this week in Las Vegas. Landlords have always been a natural target for negative press. But housing affordability is too important to fall prey to the kinds of conspiracy theories espoused in the ProPublica article and the lawsuit that followed it.

Source: Multifamily Revenue Management in the Dock

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/multifamily-revenue-management-in-the-dock/

The Dangers of Selling Commercial Property Too Late

The last downturn

cost those who chose to sell commercial property an average of

30.3% of their property value

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Reason #1

Why people sell commercial property too late:

Complacency

 

Complacency is the most dangerous state to ignore.

It’s the moment before the market corrects and values decline. When the market goes through this initial correction, our natural tendency is to be complacent because initial corrections actually look like a cool-off period.

Then we expect the market to pick up again and continue with its growth phase.

But, the market continues to deteriorate and worries creep in as we wonder what is going on. Next, it is normal to say to yourself that your investments are good ones that they’ll ultimately come back.

When the market continues to soften until it seems there is no hope in coming back, that’s the absolute bottom of the market and the worst time to sell.

 

This point of capitulation is one of surrender and of asking how the government could let something like this happen.

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Reason #2

Why people sell commercial property too late:

Ownership and Identity

 

In order to avoid loss, people will overvalue what they own.

That is what Richard Taylor, Daniel Kahneman, and Jack L. Knetsch identified with the Endowment Effect. In fact, Kahneman and Knetsch won the Nobel Peace Prize for their research in this area of behavioral economics.

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It’s normal for people to overvalue what they own.

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In a study with Cornell undergrads, broken into groups and given identical coffee cups, Kahneman and Knetsch told one group to value the cups they owned and the other group to value the cups they would purchase.

They found the undergrads with the coffee cups were unwilling to sell their coffee cups for less than $5.25 while their less fortunate peers were unwilling to pay more than $2.25 to $2.75.

But, it was Carey Morewedge’s research into the Endowment Effect that revealed that it’s not loss aversion that leads to overvaluation, it’s ownership and identity.

Morewedge found that it’s our sense of possession that creates the feeling of an object being mine, which then becomes a part of our identity.

 

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Reason #3

Why people sell commercial property too late:

Loss Aversion

 

Why is it so difficult to sell commercial property in a market decline?

According to Brafman and Brafman, authors of Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior people will go to great lengths to avoid perceived losses.

What’s more, people also succumb to their will to recover what once was.  They will spend whatever it takes not to lose, be it time, money, or emotional resources.

Imagine watching someone playing craps in Las Vegas. When they are on a roll, taking in their winnings, they race through the growth phase, reaching the peak of the game.

They feel ecstatic.

But what happens when the tide turns and they start to lose?

They enter the complacency stage, call it a short turn of bad luck, and keep playing.  They believe they will return to the top. But their bad luck continues.

By waiting to avoid losses, people hold off and then sell at the wrong time — maximizing their losses.

 

They lose their winnings, keep playing and generate losses. They would rather hold onto the idea of getting back to where they were at almost any cost than realizing their loss and moving on to another opportunity.

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Reason #4

Why people sell commercial property too late:

Self Reliance Time Traps

Time Trap #1: Self-Education

 

People will self educate online because it is free and immediately available. A review of the search term on Google for “commercial real estate trends” returned 152 million results. A search for “commercial real estate trends YouTube” turned up 310 million results!

No doubt, an abundance of free information in the form of market data, blogs, market reports, and online opinions on what’s happening in the market is available.

Time Trap #2: Friends, Family, and Non-Commercial Advisors

 

When we aren’t sure what to do, we often consult friends, family, and non-commercial real estate advisors for input. Unfortunately, these people will not want to be the ones to say sell because it is easier to say no and risk being wrong than to say yes and risk not being right.

Plus, most of these folks will not have the data that you have seen here. These people are more likely to share anecdote based advice like “My friend made a killing in real estate. You should hold on, it will come back.” Remember, people who made this mistake lost in 2008-2010.

Time Trap #3: Hire a Traditional Broker

 

It is easy to find a traditional broker, given that 1 in 164 people in the United States today have a real estate license. According to the National Association of Realtors, there are about 2 million active real estate licensees in the United States.

The problem is that most traditional brokers do not specialize in Commercial Real Estate, Investment Sales and further specialization by property type. 

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Have you thought of selling your property and would like to know what it's worth? Request a valuation for your property below:

Request Valuation

eXp Commercial Chicago Multifamily Brokerage focuses on listing and selling multifamily properties throughout the Chicago Area and Suburbs.

We don’t just market properties; we make a market for each property we represent. Each offering is thoroughly underwritten, aggressively priced, and accompanied by loan quotes to expedite the sales process. We leverage our broad national marketing platform syndicating to the top CRE Listing Sites for maximum exposure combined with an orchestrated competitive bidding process that yields higher sales prices for your property.

 

 

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/the-dangers-of-selling-commercial-property-too-late/

2023 eXp Commercial Commercial Real Estate Symposium

REGISTER TODAY

The Commercial Real Estate Symposium will provide junior and senior agents and brokers with valuable insights on topics, including: international opportunities, capital and funding for small businesses in today’s market, how to attract investors, and much more.

Dates: April 25-26, 2023
Start Time: 9 a.m. - 4 p.m. CST
Location: eXp Commercial Campus

We look forward to seeing you in the metaverse!

Important: Please download the virtual eXp Commercial Campus prior to the event, and follow the instructions to login and create your avatar. Feel free to explore the campus before the event begins.

 

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Further Info

https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/2023-exp-commercial-commercial-real-estate-symposium/