Historians will not look back at 2023 as a happy year for commercial real estate.
But that was then and this is now. As the Bisnow newsroom learned in the waning hours of 2023, the industry is more than ready for 2024 — for the challenge of willing it to become a turning point year.
A common refrain has echoed throughout the industry these last few months: “Survive till ’25.”
What does it even mean? We wanted to find out, so we asked hundreds of real estate executives worldwide — from Paris, London, New York, Los Angeles, Dublin, Chicago, Houston and everywhere in between. We spoke to developers, investors, brokers, construction executives, affordable housing experts and data center power players.
We boiled the best responses down to 40 voices and granted these industry leaders anonymity to capture their unvarnished perspectives. Their responses span everything from being insulted by the question to deep concerns for an industry that is facing intense headwinds in some quarters.
It won’t be doom and gloom in 2024, they told us. As the following perspectives illustrate, chaos can be a ladder, and opportunities abound for anyone who carries wisdom from past economic dips.
So, how will you be pivoting your strategy in 2024 to survive till ‘25?
— Mark F. Bonner, Bisnow Editor-in-Chief
My crystal ball is broken. Every time we think we’ve learned something, something new comes up. I’ve been doing this for over 30 years and I’ve never seen a market like this. Office has been my bread and butter, but the reality is tapping into diverse projects is really good. We’re doing out-of-market portfolio work, we’re doing advanced manufacturing and climate issues, and we’re uniquely positioned to do that in Washington. It’s thriving through adversity. Candidly, I just had the best year of my entire career. I don’t know — the sun, the moon, the stars aligned — but it’s because of that kind of thinking of collaborating with others in my company to find new ways of identifying, securing and executing business. If you think you’re going to keep doing it how you did in the past, you will be left behind.
SECTOR: Tenant Representation
CITY: Washington, D.C.
GENDER: Female
YEARS IN CRE: 36
:::::
We're in good shape here, so it doesn't apply to us, fortunately. We're just going to keep doing what we're doing, and we feel like we're in a nice spot. We recognize that we're so fortunate, and we'll just keep working.
SECTOR: Development
CITY: South Florida
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 18
:::::
I won’t be changing strategy. Instead, we will continue to focus on clients with the objective to determine undiscovered needs, dig deep to identify needs that will certainly change and morph, and be relentless on their behalf. We will also continue to differentiate with purpose and turn opportunities upside down to get a greater, more creative view. Do not compete with anyone. Do not settle. Be relentless on your own behalf. That also means continuing to care for human capital. In today’s market, our people are the only investment to give back tenfold. Watch out for them. Listen to them. Be relentless.
SECTOR: Office
CITY: Denver
GENDER: Female
YEARS IN CRE: 25
:::::
In 2024, despite rising interest rates and supply chain challenges, the affordable housing sector presents unparalleled opportunities. The demand for affordable housing remains insatiable, and we're committed to meeting this need. Our strategy is to double down on our efforts to produce as much quality affordable housing as possible through 2024 and into 2025. By focusing on efficient production and innovative solutions, we aim to continue making a significant impact in communities that need it the most.
SECTOR: Multifamily and Affordable Housing Development
CITY: Washington, D.C.
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 16
:::::
The current flux in the market due to uncertainty over pricing, interest rates and geopolitical events still needs time to play out before full confidence can return. That said, prices are revising and rental prices have rebased. A lot has happened, and now it’s becoming a really interesting market. Polarisation has cleaned the market of products that had become irrelevant. We are in a demand-led industry: Location, proposition to guests, and customers are three prerequisites to relevance. There will be a temptation for investors to go for the first deals available and lesser-quality assets, but we won’t be tempted to buy cheap.
SECTOR: Retail
CITY: Paris
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 25
:::::
I heard a quote the other day that was very fitting for my perception of South Florida. One of the big financial guys came down and said, “You guys are so lucky because South Florida is the only clean shirt in a dirty laundry pile.” I’ve been through different cycles here and we always said, “It’s not going to impact South Florida.” But certainly, whatever happens in the economy does have some consequences. So my policy is to make sure that what we do is totally well-founded and that it would withstand a potential downturn, specifically if it's just a relatively short period. I’d rather be wrong by not starting a new project that I probably should have started. The worst you can do is rush it and try to do it when the timing is not right, so we're going to be monitoring what’s happening not only locally but nationally.
SECTOR: Development
CITY: South Florida
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 40
:::::
Our strategy can be broken down into four parts. We will focus on growing our core business in place branding, master planning and activation strategy for urban regen and transportation projects. And also our brand experience work. In parallel, we will use this expertise to diversify our market into healthcare, science and tech, and higher education campuses. We will develop a standalone “place strategy” offer while also pushing our brand further upstream as a creative advisory business. We will develop our evidence-based design service further by building our data competence, trends, and insights.
SECTOR: Multiple
CITY: London
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 26
:::::
Going into 2024, shopping centres are struggling with a virtually unprecedented disconnect between the strength of the occupational market and the weakness of the investment market, compounded by the scarcity of capital and debt, which is likely to continue for some time. That means that investors will have to work twice as hard in 2024, and prospects for improvements in the investment market now depend largely on outside factors, in particular interest rates and the return of lending and debt. Our focus is on differentiating through operational excellence, which is where we believe we’ll continue to see success.
SECTOR: Retail
CITY: Madrid
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 35
Recent economic headlines on contained inflation, stabilizing financial markets, and increased productivity have spurred growing speculation of an interest rate reduction in the first half of 2024 and conservative confidence in the outlook for the new year. Next year will, however, offer its challenges related to massive debt maturities, an office market beleaguered by reduced demand, and corporate cost containment. Despite these setbacks, we are planning a strategy, albeit slow and measured, of selective transaction activity. While the industrial, healthcare, residential, and community-based retail sectors are expected to stay active, offices, especially those of a lower class, will continue to struggle.
SECTOR: Brokerage
City: Washington, D.C.
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 30
:::::
We’ve made our pivot and, in fact, are several years into a strategy reset. Without a doubt,the challenges in the the challenges in the capital and real estate sectors have been outsized. It’s been a year of disappointment in many corners of the industry. I do see a course forward, in our case, in being more nimble with our capital toward quicker returns. My priority for 2024 is to help our team see the same promise and to keep working toward it.
SECTOR: Integrated Real Estate
CITY: San Francisco
GENDER: Female
YEARS IN CRE: 25
:::::
It’s not equally or consistently bad across all verticals. The industrial market has slipped the past few quarters, but the underlying long-term trends show industrial reverting to a normal pre-Covid market after the last three years of a hyperactive market with unsustainable increases in lease rates and absorption. Rising interest rates have definitely put a damper on industrial activity, but I believe as interest rates begin to cool off in 2024, pent-up demand will bolster activity in industrial. Consumers are still spending money, and there is a push for businesses to make more things in North America. As an organization, we are doubling down on the industrial sector.
SECTOR: Industrial
CITY: Los Angeles
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 20
:::::
In short, we are getting out of Cook County. The cities of Chicago and Cook County have made it clear that they will take any and all profits from real estate that they can. Even though the city has some of the best fundamentals for investment in the country, very few investors or lenders will even consider it anymore, so we are forced to move out to other, more friendly locations.
SECTOR: Residential
CITY: Chicago
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 25
:::::
We’re going to solidify our balance sheet in 2024 to make sure we have enough liquidity to cover our debts. At the same time, we’re going to invest in properties like Class-B+ to Class-A office spaces and luxury residential construction to give us some long-term runway into 2025. Like Warren Buffet said, “Be greedy when others are fearful.” I think deals will start to really pick up in H2 2024, but a lot of that will depend on what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates.
SECTOR: Office
CITY: Denver
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 13
:::::
The focus for 2024 is to stay focused on the basics. Improved operational performance around revenue collections. The eviction saga in Fulton County created a very unfavorable environment for owners in 2023. Get ahead of loan renewals and have a game plan with lenders. Slow and steady wins the race versus build and sell. View investments with a 10-year time frame.
SECTOR: Urban infill redevelopment
CITY: Atlanta
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 32
:::::
Boston has experienced significant market fluxes throughout its history and has met each with steadfast optimism and determination to progress. These recoveries are possible due to the stable, diverse marketplace. Boston is a resilient city. For our firm, we know now is not the time to retreat. We are doubling down on our investments and working with our partners to weather the storm. In our experience, midmarket residential projects are continuing to see great returns. There is a housing crisis in this region, and we cannot slow the pipeline of residential development. We are optimistic about the future and will be here when the tide changes.
SECTOR: Commercial
CITY: Boston
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 8
:::::
I’m going to continue in 2024, pivoting away from representing what has been my bread-and-butter clientele over the years, metro D.C. nonprofit organizations. My focus is strategically diversifying my client base to other groups—ttech, healthcare, and corporate users. Why? They are the ones who are growing and coming into the office, thus occupying real estate that I can lease to them or sell to them. Kastle Systems sends an occupancy report weekly, and D.C. has not consistently stayed above 50%. Until we have a president who will stand up to unions and mandate a return to work by the federal government, it will stay that way. Nonprofits track the federal government.
SECTOR: Office Leasing
City: Washington, D.C.
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 25
:::::
The key to be aware of is that in NYC, for retail and multifamily, it’s “stay alive until ’25.” For office owners, it’s “take your licks until, at least, ‘26.” Billions of equity in Class-B and Class-C office buildings will be lost by the time the market clears. Retail will bounce back next year, and slight reductions in rates will help sales volume bounce back after a slow start to the year. We will also see new lenders enter the market as legacy banks continue to deal with issues hurting their balance sheets.
SECTOR: Investment Sales
CITY: New York
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: “Many”
:::::
This upcoming year will be more about staying the course than pivoting in a different direction. 2023 was a year of growth and change, as I assumed a leadership position in my firm. With the addition of staff and new agents, my goal for 2024 will be to make sure that our new people are getting trained to succeed in this business. I would like to continue bringing in new business and networking in the community. I expect 2024 will be a busy year. My goal is to stay focused on growing my company while minimizing any bumps in the road.
SECTOR: Industrial, Land, Office and Retail
CITY: Houston
GENDER: Female
YEARS IN CRE: 9
::::::
With the sunset of Affordable New York and a climate of high interest rates, we’re leaning into the challenges and reinforcing our existing relationships with blue-chip financing partners by bringing complicated deals to the table that few others are able to execute—iidentifying underdeveloped properties with the right or rezoning potential, acquisition of brand-consistent properties under stress, office-to-residential conversions of appropriate buildings—aalways while working with communities, agencies, and electeds to garner support. This is always our methodology, and the highest-quality developers such as ourselves will continue to perform even in the toughest times to attract and maintain great partners—pperhaps not so much of a pivot as a double-down on our strengths.
SECTOR: Multifamily
CITY: New York
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 30
:::::
I think what's going to happen in ’24 is that we're all going to have to be a lot better. Putting a shovel in the ground a year ago or two years ago didn't have to be great. I think in ’24, you're going to see a bifurcation of those developers who are creative, diligent, and lead an exhaustive effort to try to figure out how to get a project done, how to finance it, and how to convince your equity.
SECTOR: Investment and Development
CITY: Philadelphia
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 20
:::::
We are not trying to survive until 2025. We are focused on preserving the value of our existing portfolio, looking for new opportunities, and ensuring our people are taken care of. It is an incredible balancing act. We are highly focused on spending more time with our people, investing in them in many ways, and working on our culture very hard. The pressure on everyone is so high and constant. We are also extremely focused on our capital relationships, as that is the key to preserving existing assets and finding, then funding, new opportunities. Our focus is on the next three years, not the next year.
SECTOR: Development
City: Washington, D.C.
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 41
:::::
I will focus on adding value in ways to help companies look at their office space differently. It can be a tool to use for driving business and pulling their people back in, if done correctly. The old way of just focusing on the low-cost option and packing people into utilitarian space is not working.
SECTOR: Office
CITY: Dallas
GENDER: Female
YEARS IN CRE: 22
Our strategy through 2024 is to expand our portfolio so we are not dependent on one asset class, with a focus on stable asset classes such as medical offices, Class-A+ offices, and industrial projects. Changes in the market create opportunities, so we will explore properties in distress as well as expand our platform in different markets in 2024. We will also be adding fresh talent to our team of creative thinkers with the ability to be nimble and adjust to market conditions.
SECTOR: Office, Medical, Retail and Industrial
CITY: Dallas
GENDER: Female
YEARS IN CRE: 12
:::::
We consider the current state of the office market a once-in-a-lifetime reset. As a landlord representative, we see tremendous opportunity to add real value by working through limited demand with best-in-class marketing and steadfast guidance. On the tenant side, we will help our clients maximize unprecedented opportunities for savings and flexibility. It's not a “pivot.” It is an intentional recommitment to customer service. We are excited about finding ways to thrive, not just survive until '25.
SECTOR: Office
CITY: Atlanta
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 23
:::::
A skittish market presents opportunities. Rather than running for safety, we will be looking to lend to top-flight property owners with well-located assets and a proven track record of success. We will also be working with existing floating-rate borrowers to give them peace of mind by resetting their loans into fixed-rate structures. Collectively, this strategy will allow us to go into 2025 with a highly curated and well-performing loan portfolio. For smart money, it is not about “survive to ‘25” but rather “thrive to ‘25.”
SECTOR: Finance
CITY: Chicago
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 35
:::::
Diversification to a full-service brokerage and consulting solution, delivering strategic and targeted solutions at the local level on a global scale. Our sights are already firmly set for 2025. We’ll be making a lot of noise over the next year demonstrating the evolution of our franchised nationwide CRE footprint, embracing core traditional brokerage services and layering in property management, business brokerage, and emerging technologies with the launch of the industry’s first commercial 3D concrete printing service for developers. We’ll be positioned to provide a full-service commercial real estate solution to our clients, no matter where they are located, the asset type they own, or the services they require.
SECTOR: Brokerage
CITY: Irvine, California
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 25
:::::
The strategy in 2024 will depend largely on what happens with rates. No one knows how this plays out, as a case can equally be made for the maintenance of the status quo or the starting of rate cuts. Assuming the former will mean staying the course, with the focus on enhancing operations, waiting for evidence of a market bottom, and hoping for opportunities from stress—ii.e., owners of good assets needing to clear the market (something we have seen little of to date in multifamily). Assuming the latter will signal to the market that the bottom is behind us, increasing risk appetite and hopefully encouraging sellers to put more (and better) assets to market, thus reorienting the focus toward acquisitions. Until then, it is a waiting game.
SECTOR: Multifamily
CITY: Bethesda, Maryland
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 20
:::::
We will continue to be conservative in our approach for 2024, as we were in 2023. Hiring will be slow, and we will try and continue to nurture our existing employees. We will be pursuing deals and expect activity to be strong, although deals will be much smaller in size. Investment sales are expected to be nonexistent until the debt market rebounds in 2025. There will be an emphasis on trying to do deals with landlords that are financially sound. We expect the special servicers to be more active in the market, with numerous foreclosures.
SECTOR: Office and Industrial
CITY: Houston
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 35
:::::
To prioritize prime assets, our strategy embraces the evolution of the office market. Recognizing the trend toward remote work, we will embrace a partial work-from-home culture, allowing for streamlined office footprints. To lure employees back, we emphasize enhancing office amenities. We are committed to ongoing property investment and must maintain assets regardless of market conditions. This proactive stance ensures resilience amid changing work dynamics, emphasizing the enduring value of quality assets in strategic locations. To navigate uncertainties, we advocate thinking outside the box and embracing innovation. Our unwavering belief in our people, assets, and long-term vision remains the cornerstone of our anticipated success.
SECTOR: Office, Hospitality and Retail
CITY: Houston
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 12
:::::
Resiliency in a shifting market is my approach for 2024 as a Houston-based office and healthcare real estate professional focused on occupiers. I expect a slow but steady improvement in the office sector in 2024, as Houston is primarily an office-centric work city. Health systems will continue to expand since the healthcare market is fundamentally strong. Basic blocking and tackling, actively engaging occupiers in implementing real estate strategies to attain their goals in this unique environment, will be my approach. Something new is focusing on how to incorporate artificial intelligence to streamline operations and improve client service.
SECTOR: Office and Healthcare
CITY: Houston
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 33
:::::
As a developer navigating the pre-development phase, I aim to seize the current fiscal climate as an opportunity to elevate community engagement in 2024. We will utilize communication platforms to generate awareness and build support for our project. By co-creating solutions, we ensure that our development positively impacts the neighborhood's quality of life and cultural fabric. This commitment to community involvement will not only strengthen our project but also contribute meaningfully to the vitality of the local area.
SECTOR: Development
CITY: Chicago
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 15
:::::
Stay alive until ’25 is thematic for 2024. Velocity across all sectors has been impacted by the inflationary and interest rate environments. Rent growth has slowed in gateway industrial markets, multifamily rents have stagnated, and office has turned into a market of micro-markets versus regional or super-regional markets. We will see amazing buying and recapitalization opportunities, allowing the strong to put themselves in a stronger position.
SECTOR: Industrial/Construction Services
CITY: Chicago
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 20
We are holding fast to our current strategy. Industrial is going to be fine, and the lack of new starts for warehouses will cause good absorption, and by 2025, things will be looking very normal. We don’t have any offices to worry about; we are a very small family. Our student housing product is still doing well. Because we have a large operating business, we can hold out as long as we need to. These cycles usually do housecleaning, and that is usually a good outcome for us.
SECTOR: Development, Architecture, Engineering and Construction
CITY: Chicago
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 39
:::::
Before the age of AI, data centers used to fly under the radar, with community members not knowing the difference between a data center and a modern warehouse or logistics facility. Now that large investments are being made in data centers to support AI, these sites will be larger than ever, making the prospect of hiding anonymously unviable. To survive, they must build better partnerships and foster collaboration to bring value to their communities.
SECTOR: Data Centers
CITY: National (based in Denver)
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 20
:::::
We are seeking to diversify geographically and by asset class. We are New York-centric but will be looking further afield—iin Washington, D.C., Boston, Atlanta, and Miami. We are also seeking to expand into industrial, including cold storage and last-mile modern bulk, as demand for near-real-time delivery continues to accelerate. With the recent positive interest rate news, we expect transaction volume to increase in the second half of the year.
SECTOR: Multifamily
CITY: New York
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 25
:::::
We're capitalizing on a critical U.S. housing shortage of 5.5 million to 6.8 million units and an anticipated need for 4.3 million more apartments by 2035. Despite a 50-year high in new apartment deliveries in 2023, a decline in construction starts is expected due to reduced lending and capital availability. The prolonged housing shortage strengthens multifamily investment fundamentals. The widening price gap between buying and renting is at its most extreme since 1996.
SECTOR: Capital Markets
CITY: Chicago
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 17
:::::
We found that in markets where we have small-project opportunities, keeping our teams busy for a couple of months leads to the opportunities of the future and builds our capacity in the market, in addition to strategically aligning with partners in the affordable housing arena. In '24, we're trying to be intelligent and really listen to our clients and our developers about what they need and how they are able to maintain a budget because, as you know, in this market right now, although the inflation has come down a little bit, margins are tough.
SECTOR: Affordable Housing
CITY: Boston
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 15
:::::
One of the areas we focus on is just trying to be more lean in how we operate. And we're always being strategic, but even more strategic and thoughtful about where we spend our money. We're looking forward to the next 12 to 24 months with a lot of optimism. But I think there are some things that have given us an opportunity to tap into pain that probably always existed in the industry but is now more acute and exposed, and ways that people are very receptive to solutions. And we definitely want to exploit that and take advantage of it.
SECTOR: Proptech
CITY: New York and Atlanta
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 15
:::::
The cycle of change and expansion in AI and computing gives us the conviction to take a longer view of development in terms of scale and concentration. Managing sites to be ready for service at various stages every year for the next decade. Our horizon in 2024 is pivoted to longer-term scenarios. We anticipate a sizable shortage in data center supply from 2026 to 2032 if action is not taken in 2024. One large data center causes less brain damage and is more efficient than 20 smaller sites of an equal amount, i.e., an efficient scale. Surviving 2025 is a matter of delivering inventory planned for 2022, which isn’t nearly enough.
SECTOR: Data Centers
CITY: National
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 40
:::::
I happen to think that “survive till '25” does not apply to South Florida for a few reasons. First of all, our market is quite diverse, and while capital markets have been challenging, a lot of sectors are doing quite well, namely homebuilding and condos. But even more than this, since we last spoke, interest rates seem to be making a big comeback, and the overall sentiment is that capital markets will be much more open for business this coming year. So, as painfully slow as 2023 was, I don’t think 2024 will be a repeat of the same.
SECTOR: Development and Equity
CITY: Miami
GENDER: Male
YEARS IN CRE: 15
Source: 40 CRE Execs Tell Us How 2024 Will Play Out — And What They’re Doing To Prepare
https://www.creconsult.net/market-trends/cre-executives-strategies-2024/
No comments:
Post a Comment